How to reveal the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on urban CO2 emissions and air pollutants in China and their synergistic effects
摘要
The COVID-19 pandemic provided a unique opportunity to examine how varying levels of social and economic activity influence air quality (AQ). While existing studies mostly focused on short-term AQ improvements during lockdowns, limited attention has been given to the spatiotemporal characteristics and synergistic effects of air pollutants (AP) (PM2.5, CO, NO2, O3, and SO2) and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions before and after the pandemic. Aiming to evaluate the trend differences, spatiotemporal aggregation characteristics, and co-effects of AP and CO2 before and after the pandemic across 369 Chinese cities, this study develops a methodological framework combining polynomial function fitting to compare inter-city temporal trends, K-means clustering to identify regional spatiotemporal patterns, and a co-effect control coordinate system to evaluate co-effects of AQ and CO2 reduction. Daily AP data and CO2 emissions were analyzed for January to June in 2019–2021. Results show that CO2 and NO2 exhibited broadly consistent trends across cities, while CO and PM2.5 showed similar inter-city patterns. CO2 emissions in eastern, northern, and northeastern China declined substantially in 2020. PM2.5 and CO decreased markedly in the Yellow River downstream and Bohai Rim region and remained lower even after policy relaxation. O3 concentrations increased in the Central Plains and southeastern coastal cities during the pandemic, whereas SO2 declined continuously. Lockdown measures in 2020 achieved significant effects in synergistically reducing AP and CO2 emissions. AP reductions exceeding 10%, with declines of 14.65% in SO2 and 13.71% in NO2. However, CO, NO2, and CO₂ emissions rebounded nationwide in 2021. This study reveals regional heterogeneity in AP and CO2 responses to pandemic lockdown measures and highlights that reduction co-effects achieved during lockdowns were temporary, providing new insights to support targeted, sustained joint control strategies for AP and CO2.