Macroeconomic and energy price shocks: a case study of their differential impact on purchasing power indices in Pakistan
摘要
Pakistan’s economic fabric is strained by rising energy costs, taxes, and interest rates, which significantly impact household purchasing power. Despite their severity, the intricate, time-varying relationships between these forces remain poorly understood. This study employs Mixed Data Sampling (MIDAS) techniques to analyse monthly energy and macroeconomic data against quarterly purchasing power indices from 2015 to 2023. This methodology effectively captures dynamic interactions across varying temporal resolutions that traditional econometric models often overlook. The analysis reveals that petrol price hikes have the most substantial negative impact on the Purchasing Power Index (PPI), followed by gas and electricity. These energy shocks disproportionately affect both the PPI and the Cost-of-Living Index (CoLI). Furthermore, results indicate that taxes emerge as the most significant negative driver of the PPI, while exchange rate volatility primarily impacts the Grocery Index (GI) and CoLI. Rising lending rates were found to consistently dampen all indices, indicating a pervasive and systemic squeeze on household liquidity throughout the study period. Navigating Pakistan’s economic maze requires a multi-pronged strategy. Diversifying energy with renewables and reforming subsidies illuminates a path towards affordability and sustainability. But taming inflation demands a bolder approach. We must attack its roots: unsustainable debt, choked supply chains, and undernourished sectors like agriculture. Revitalizing these sectors, alongside responsive social safety nets, can shield vulnerable populations and unlock growth potential.
Graphical abstract