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<p>Climate change and ecological restoration have induced vegetation variability, profoundly altering ecosystem structure and function in China’s drylands. However, few studies have evaluated the interannual fluctuations, ecological thresholds and mechanisms of Ecosystem services (ESs) within the long-term trends, especially considering the complex interdependencies between ESs and coupled climate-vegetation dynamics, leading to large uncertainty in adaptive management. Addressing this gap, this study analyzed the long-term trends, short-term fluctuations, nonlinear responses and thresholds of carbon sequestration (CS), water yield (WY), habitat quality (HQ), and soil conservation (SC) in China’s drylands, the XGBoost model and partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) were employed to evaluate the influence mechanisms of climate change and vegetation greening on ESs variability. Our findings revealed: (1) Significant increases in WY and CS (5.09&#xa0;m³·km·yr⁻¹ and 0.1 t·km<sup>2</sup>·yr⁻¹, <i>P</i> &lt; 0.05), a marginally increasing trend in SC (0.043 t·ha·yr⁻¹), and significant HQ degradation (-0.00059·yr⁻¹, <i>p</i> &lt; 0.001), ESs hotspots were predominantly located in dry sub-humid and semi-arid regions, notably within major ecological restoration projects. (2) Short-term variability differed considerably, with WY exhibiting the highest interannual variability (20.3%), followed by SC (7.6%), CS (6.5%), and HQ (1.25%) displaying the greatest stability. (3) Drought triggered abrupt regime shifts across all ESs upon exceeding specific thresholds (WY: 0.97, SC: 0.84, HQ: 0.81, CS: 0.66). (4) Precipitation-NDVI coupling primarily dominates the dynamics of ESs through direct and indirect pathways. These insights are pivotal for developing the “Threshold-Based Adaptive Paradigm” to enhance climate adaptive management strategies in China’s drylands.</p>

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Climate and vegetation-driven variations, ecological thresholds and mechanisms of ecosystem services in China’s drylands

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月9日

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  • Baolong Ma,
  • Linlin Gao,
  • Yanjun Xu,
  • Xinyue Li,
  • Yang Deng,
  • Haijiang Yang

摘要

Climate change and ecological restoration have induced vegetation variability, profoundly altering ecosystem structure and function in China’s drylands. However, few studies have evaluated the interannual fluctuations, ecological thresholds and mechanisms of Ecosystem services (ESs) within the long-term trends, especially considering the complex interdependencies between ESs and coupled climate-vegetation dynamics, leading to large uncertainty in adaptive management. Addressing this gap, this study analyzed the long-term trends, short-term fluctuations, nonlinear responses and thresholds of carbon sequestration (CS), water yield (WY), habitat quality (HQ), and soil conservation (SC) in China’s drylands, the XGBoost model and partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) were employed to evaluate the influence mechanisms of climate change and vegetation greening on ESs variability. Our findings revealed: (1) Significant increases in WY and CS (5.09 m³·km·yr⁻¹ and 0.1 t·km2·yr⁻¹, P < 0.05), a marginally increasing trend in SC (0.043 t·ha·yr⁻¹), and significant HQ degradation (-0.00059·yr⁻¹, p < 0.001), ESs hotspots were predominantly located in dry sub-humid and semi-arid regions, notably within major ecological restoration projects. (2) Short-term variability differed considerably, with WY exhibiting the highest interannual variability (20.3%), followed by SC (7.6%), CS (6.5%), and HQ (1.25%) displaying the greatest stability. (3) Drought triggered abrupt regime shifts across all ESs upon exceeding specific thresholds (WY: 0.97, SC: 0.84, HQ: 0.81, CS: 0.66). (4) Precipitation-NDVI coupling primarily dominates the dynamics of ESs through direct and indirect pathways. These insights are pivotal for developing the “Threshold-Based Adaptive Paradigm” to enhance climate adaptive management strategies in China’s drylands.