Exploring the coordinated development mechanism of new quality productivity and rural leading industries in the context of aging and income dynamics in China's rural areas
摘要
The rapid growth of information technology (IT) has facilitated not only increased communication between urban and rural areas but also created new pathways for the rural population to engage in social and economic activities. This study employs spatial econometric models, including the Spatial Lag Model (SLM) and Spatial Error Model (SEM), in combination with Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR), to explore the effects of information infrastructure on rural behavior, communication, and income in typical agricultural counties in eastern China. The results indicate a 0.21–0.34 increase in the frequency of interpersonal interactions with each unit rise in information infrastructure. The elasticity of agricultural labor supply in relation to income decreases from 0.28 in low-aging areas to 0.09 in high-aging areas, highlighting the diminished productivity in regions with higher aging populations. Furthermore, the marginal effect of fixed asset investment declines by 12.7% in counties with significant aging populations. The study identifies strong spatial dependence (ρ = 0.41) in wealthier areas, where aging is associated with a negative elasticity of –0.18. GWR analysis reveals spatial heterogeneity, with urbanization effects ranging from 0.11 to 0.29 and varying impacts on agricultural labor between –0.05 and 0.17. Additionally, an income-aging decoupling index has been developed to assess the alignment between rural income growth and the aging of the population.