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<p>The construction industry is facing mounting environmental pressures, and its sustainability transition holds the potential to reshape the industrial green landscape and address severe environmental challenges. Although existing studies highlight the antecedent drivers and performance outcomes of sustainability transitions, they overlook the systemic process of how construction enterprises configure innovation portfolio strategies in response to these drivers to achieve desirable outcomes. Based on the Socio-technical System Transition Theory, this study develops a sustainability transition model by adopting a hybrid approach that integrates the Interpretive Structural Model (ISM) for structural configuration with a Bayesian Network (BN) for probabilistic inference, enabling the model to capture the intricate causal dynamics among relevant variables and to guide construction enterprises in selecting optimal innovation portfolio strategies under typical policy-driven and market-driven scenarios. Our findings indicate that: (1) The sustainability transition model highlights the role of innovation portfolio strategies, including partner selection and innovation strategies, with the optimal portfolio varying across enterprise scales in two typical scenarios. (2) Specially, innovation strategies can be divided into three categories: Deep discovery strategy, which highly supports environmental and social performance; Broad diffusion strategy, which contributes to improving economic performance; and Hybrid strategy. (3) Large enterprises deploy diversified collaboration and the comprehensive development of green technologies and sustainable business models, yet face coordination challenges due to organizational complexity, while small and medium-sized firms build technological barriers and competitive advantages to create strategic leverage for cooperation and capture future market share. This research not only advances theoretical understanding of sustainability transitions but also provides practical insights that guide decision-makers in formulating optimal innovation portfolio strategies.</p>

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Sustainability transitions in construction enterprises: navigating innovation portfolio strategies through a hybrid Bayesian network

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月17日

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  • Rui Zhao,
  • Hongjuan Wu,
  • Yanling Zhao

摘要

The construction industry is facing mounting environmental pressures, and its sustainability transition holds the potential to reshape the industrial green landscape and address severe environmental challenges. Although existing studies highlight the antecedent drivers and performance outcomes of sustainability transitions, they overlook the systemic process of how construction enterprises configure innovation portfolio strategies in response to these drivers to achieve desirable outcomes. Based on the Socio-technical System Transition Theory, this study develops a sustainability transition model by adopting a hybrid approach that integrates the Interpretive Structural Model (ISM) for structural configuration with a Bayesian Network (BN) for probabilistic inference, enabling the model to capture the intricate causal dynamics among relevant variables and to guide construction enterprises in selecting optimal innovation portfolio strategies under typical policy-driven and market-driven scenarios. Our findings indicate that: (1) The sustainability transition model highlights the role of innovation portfolio strategies, including partner selection and innovation strategies, with the optimal portfolio varying across enterprise scales in two typical scenarios. (2) Specially, innovation strategies can be divided into three categories: Deep discovery strategy, which highly supports environmental and social performance; Broad diffusion strategy, which contributes to improving economic performance; and Hybrid strategy. (3) Large enterprises deploy diversified collaboration and the comprehensive development of green technologies and sustainable business models, yet face coordination challenges due to organizational complexity, while small and medium-sized firms build technological barriers and competitive advantages to create strategic leverage for cooperation and capture future market share. This research not only advances theoretical understanding of sustainability transitions but also provides practical insights that guide decision-makers in formulating optimal innovation portfolio strategies.