Evaluating the quality of low-carbon development based on the DPSIR model: evidence from 248 Chinese cities
摘要
Cities are on the frontlines of the global climate changes. Although cities occupy only 2% of land area, they account for over 70% of carbon emissions worldwide. This disproportionate environmental impact highlights the urgent need for low-carbon evaluation at the urban scale. This study compiles a panel dataset of 248 Chinese cities from 2006 to 2019 to establish a foundational database for urban low-carbon development in the pre-dual-carbon era. Based on this dataset, a comprehensive index system structured on the Driving-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) framework is developed to evaluate the development quality of low-carbon cities (DQ-LCCs). Kernel density analysis, spatial autocorrelation analysis, and the MK trend test were applied to reveal both the overall level and the trend of low-carbon development quality at the city level in China. Finally, obstacle analysis was used to identify the main influencing factors. The results indicate that the DQ-LCCs in Chinese cities have shown a dynamic upward trend, but with significant spatial disparities, characterized by an “east-high, west-low” distribution. A significant positive correlation exists between cities. Based on their scores and ranking trends, the 248 cities were categorized into five groups: Model, Potential, Stable, Backward, and Slipping cities. Stable cities exhibit a balance of obstacles, whereas Backward and Potential cities face greater challenges in the Driving and Response dimensions. Conversely, Model and Slipping cities encounter more obstacles in the State and Pressure dimensions. While this study's design does not encompass the policy changes following the announcement of the dual-carbon goals, it nevertheless establishes a foundational baseline for evaluating their impact in future research.