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<p>Shandong province, as the China’s largest carbon-emitting province, is dominated by heavy industries, therefore facing crucial challenges in carbon mitigation and industrial restructuring under the national “dual carbon” goal. This study develops an integrated framework combining Input–Output and MFA to examine the economy-energy-environment nexus at the industrial level. From 2011 to 2022, carbon emissions of Shandong remained tightly coupled with economic growth, reflecting persistent peaking pressure. Although the energy mix is shifting toward cleaner sources, coal-based generation still constrains low-carbon progress. Despite structural upgrades, heavy industries remain dominant the emission profile, with their share rising from 49% in 2011 to 57% in 2021 and characterized by high intensity. Energy use and coal reliance has both intensified within these sectors, as five sectors consumed 90% of provincial coal in 2021, up from 82% in 2016 which is further depicted by energy flow, underscoring their pivotal role in energy restructuring. Carbon flow analysis reveals risks manifested in depending on both coal and electricity, rebounds from secondary energy, and a reversal toward carbon intensive energy. These results highlight the necessity of sector-specific pathways, including phasing out coal, improving electricity cleanliness, and accelerating low-carbon technological upgrading, thereby breaking industrial carbon lock-in and guiding high-emission provinces toward sustainable and inclusive growth.</p>

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Decoupling, carbon lock-in, and energy transition barriers across industrial sectors: insights from an IO–MFA framework with emphasis on heavy industry in Shandong Province

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月3日

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  • Nan Xiang,
  • Siqi Ren,
  • Shengnan Li

摘要

Shandong province, as the China’s largest carbon-emitting province, is dominated by heavy industries, therefore facing crucial challenges in carbon mitigation and industrial restructuring under the national “dual carbon” goal. This study develops an integrated framework combining Input–Output and MFA to examine the economy-energy-environment nexus at the industrial level. From 2011 to 2022, carbon emissions of Shandong remained tightly coupled with economic growth, reflecting persistent peaking pressure. Although the energy mix is shifting toward cleaner sources, coal-based generation still constrains low-carbon progress. Despite structural upgrades, heavy industries remain dominant the emission profile, with their share rising from 49% in 2011 to 57% in 2021 and characterized by high intensity. Energy use and coal reliance has both intensified within these sectors, as five sectors consumed 90% of provincial coal in 2021, up from 82% in 2016 which is further depicted by energy flow, underscoring their pivotal role in energy restructuring. Carbon flow analysis reveals risks manifested in depending on both coal and electricity, rebounds from secondary energy, and a reversal toward carbon intensive energy. These results highlight the necessity of sector-specific pathways, including phasing out coal, improving electricity cleanliness, and accelerating low-carbon technological upgrading, thereby breaking industrial carbon lock-in and guiding high-emission provinces toward sustainable and inclusive growth.