<p>With the increasing frequency of extreme weather events, climate change is exerting profound effects on economic system resilience. Despite growing concerns, direct empirical evidence on how climate physical risk undermines economic resilience remains scarce. Drawing on provincial panel data from China, in this study, a refined climate physical risk index and a novel economic resilience index are constructed, and econometric models inspired by complex systems theory are employed to analyse their relationships. The findings reveal that, first, climate physical risk initially decreases but then increases, with a spatial pattern decreasing from the central-western regions outwards, whereas economic resilience exhibits steady growth, with a spatial pattern decreasing from southeast to northwest. Second, climate physical risk significantly weakens economic resilience, resulting in marked heterogeneity when compounded by climate transition and liability risks. Third, proactive government intervention and effective market mechanisms buffer the negative impacts of climate physical risk, with improved fiscal transparency, fiscal decentralization, business environments, and digital service level playing key mitigating roles. Fourth, climate physical risk transmits through increasing industrial subsystem enterprises’ debt-to-asset ratio, increasing financial subsystem lending activity, reducing agricultural subsystem productivity, and exacerbating ecosystem pollution governance pressures, thereby influencing economic resilience. Furthermore, these effects exhibit cross-system contagion and feedback characteristics. This study deepens the understanding of climate physical risk impact mechanisms, offering a basis for governments to assess and address climate change while strengthening economic system resilience.</p>

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Climate physical risk and regional economic resilience: a systematic analysis of buffering mechanisms and multidimensional transmission channels

  • Xiujuan Gong,
  • Fengming Li,
  • Xue Li,
  • Liang Liu

摘要

With the increasing frequency of extreme weather events, climate change is exerting profound effects on economic system resilience. Despite growing concerns, direct empirical evidence on how climate physical risk undermines economic resilience remains scarce. Drawing on provincial panel data from China, in this study, a refined climate physical risk index and a novel economic resilience index are constructed, and econometric models inspired by complex systems theory are employed to analyse their relationships. The findings reveal that, first, climate physical risk initially decreases but then increases, with a spatial pattern decreasing from the central-western regions outwards, whereas economic resilience exhibits steady growth, with a spatial pattern decreasing from southeast to northwest. Second, climate physical risk significantly weakens economic resilience, resulting in marked heterogeneity when compounded by climate transition and liability risks. Third, proactive government intervention and effective market mechanisms buffer the negative impacts of climate physical risk, with improved fiscal transparency, fiscal decentralization, business environments, and digital service level playing key mitigating roles. Fourth, climate physical risk transmits through increasing industrial subsystem enterprises’ debt-to-asset ratio, increasing financial subsystem lending activity, reducing agricultural subsystem productivity, and exacerbating ecosystem pollution governance pressures, thereby influencing economic resilience. Furthermore, these effects exhibit cross-system contagion and feedback characteristics. This study deepens the understanding of climate physical risk impact mechanisms, offering a basis for governments to assess and address climate change while strengthening economic system resilience.