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<p>A comprehensive assessment and forecast of urban economic resilience (UER) are crucial for sustaining urban growth under recurrent shocks. Building on the evolutionary economic resilience, this study conceptualizes UER as a path-dependent and dynamic capacity not only to withstand and recover from disturbances, but also to adapt and renew through structural reconfiguration over time. This perspective differs from equilibrium-oriented urban economics and shock–recovery metrics by explicitly tracking multi-dimensional resilience trajectories rather than static levels. Using a balanced panel data of 27 Yangtze River Delta (YRD) cities from 2003 to 2021, compiled from the China Statistical Yearbook and official statistical bulletins, this study constructs four dimensions of UER: resistance, recoverability, adaptability, and creativity. Methodologically, this study strengthens the CRITIC weighting approach by integrating grey relational analysis (GRA) to produce a transparent composite UER index as well as dimension-specific scores. This study also develops an interpretable time-lagged grey prediction model to capture delayed effects in nonlinear urban systems and assess its predictive performance using observed time-series data. Findings show that the economic resilience of the 27 cities in the YRD improved overall during 2003–2021, but the gains were highly uneven across cities. Meanwhile, the prediction model developed in this study delivers stable and accurate forecasts that closely match observed economic patterns. These findings can offer policymakers useful insights for anticipating resilience trends and for developing more targeted strategies to support sustainable growth.</p> Graphical abstract <p></p>

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Forecasting and comparative analysis of urban economic resilience in the Yangtze River Delta: An integrated CRITIC-GRA-TOPSIS and grey time-delay modeling approach

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月24日

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  • Qi Ding,
  • Xinping Xiao,
  • Zhaohu Wang,
  • Lin Luo

摘要

A comprehensive assessment and forecast of urban economic resilience (UER) are crucial for sustaining urban growth under recurrent shocks. Building on the evolutionary economic resilience, this study conceptualizes UER as a path-dependent and dynamic capacity not only to withstand and recover from disturbances, but also to adapt and renew through structural reconfiguration over time. This perspective differs from equilibrium-oriented urban economics and shock–recovery metrics by explicitly tracking multi-dimensional resilience trajectories rather than static levels. Using a balanced panel data of 27 Yangtze River Delta (YRD) cities from 2003 to 2021, compiled from the China Statistical Yearbook and official statistical bulletins, this study constructs four dimensions of UER: resistance, recoverability, adaptability, and creativity. Methodologically, this study strengthens the CRITIC weighting approach by integrating grey relational analysis (GRA) to produce a transparent composite UER index as well as dimension-specific scores. This study also develops an interpretable time-lagged grey prediction model to capture delayed effects in nonlinear urban systems and assess its predictive performance using observed time-series data. Findings show that the economic resilience of the 27 cities in the YRD improved overall during 2003–2021, but the gains were highly uneven across cities. Meanwhile, the prediction model developed in this study delivers stable and accurate forecasts that closely match observed economic patterns. These findings can offer policymakers useful insights for anticipating resilience trends and for developing more targeted strategies to support sustainable growth.

Graphical abstract