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<p>This study innovatively constructs an integrated “macro-equilibrium modelling – micro-policy evaluation” framework to systematically analyse the dynamic tax rate optimisation pathways and industrial emission reduction mechanisms of the Environmental Protection Tax (EPT). First, a three-sector dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model incorporating dynamic pollution feedback quantifies the Pareto-efficient tax rate range under environmental-economic resilience constraints. Second, utilising panel data from 297 Chinese cities (2014–2021), the difference-in-differences (DID) approach evaluates the implementation effects of China’s Environmental Protection Tax Law, complemented by an environmental governance cost-sharing method to calculate theoretical optimal tax rates. The results show that the dynamic adjustment of the EPT rate can indeed significantly enhance the industrial pollution reduction potential, and this effect varies significantly across different levels of environmental regulation, clean - up, innovation, and city sizes. The release of reduction potential is mainly achieved through the diffusion of clean technologies and the upgrading of industrial structures. Notably, there is an institutional gap between the current actual tax rate and the theoretical optimal tax rate, and a stepwise dynamic adjustment is needed to unlock potential emission reduction dividends. This study reveals the multi - dimensional driving mechanisms of environmental fiscal policies and offers a full - chain solution for environmental tax system optimisation in transition economies.</p>

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Dynamic optimization of environmental protection tax rate and emission reduction potential release: theoretical modelling and empirical evidence

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月9日

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  • Zhuhao Xi,
  • Xiaolin Miao,
  • Jirong Huang

摘要

This study innovatively constructs an integrated “macro-equilibrium modelling – micro-policy evaluation” framework to systematically analyse the dynamic tax rate optimisation pathways and industrial emission reduction mechanisms of the Environmental Protection Tax (EPT). First, a three-sector dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model incorporating dynamic pollution feedback quantifies the Pareto-efficient tax rate range under environmental-economic resilience constraints. Second, utilising panel data from 297 Chinese cities (2014–2021), the difference-in-differences (DID) approach evaluates the implementation effects of China’s Environmental Protection Tax Law, complemented by an environmental governance cost-sharing method to calculate theoretical optimal tax rates. The results show that the dynamic adjustment of the EPT rate can indeed significantly enhance the industrial pollution reduction potential, and this effect varies significantly across different levels of environmental regulation, clean - up, innovation, and city sizes. The release of reduction potential is mainly achieved through the diffusion of clean technologies and the upgrading of industrial structures. Notably, there is an institutional gap between the current actual tax rate and the theoretical optimal tax rate, and a stepwise dynamic adjustment is needed to unlock potential emission reduction dividends. This study reveals the multi - dimensional driving mechanisms of environmental fiscal policies and offers a full - chain solution for environmental tax system optimisation in transition economies.