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<p>As a region heavily reliant on coal, Shanxi Province faces significant challenges in achieving ecological sustainability, necessitating a comprehensive assessment integrating quantitative pressure-state analysis with spatial sensitivity diagnostics. This study innovatively constructs an integrated framework combining land use change dynamics, landscape pattern indices, ecological footprint modelling, and multi-factor ecological sensitivity assessment to evaluate the province’s sustainable development status from 2000 to 2020. Findings indicate: (1) Accelerated land use change manifested as reductions in arable land and grassland, expansion of forest and construction land, alongside enhanced landscape aggregation and connectivity. (2) The ecological coordination coefficient has persistently deteriorated, with the ecological footprint index indicating severe unsustainability. However, the per capita ecological footprint surged from 5.3 hectares to 7.9 hectares, leading to a continuous worsening of the ecological deficit, where fossil fuel consumption contributed over 83% of the deficit. (3) Areas of high and extremely high ecological sensitivity have expanded significantly, particularly in the central and southeastern mountainous regions. The areas of low and very low sensitivity have decreased most significantly in the northeast and western regions. Consequently, Shanxi Province must maintain constant vigilance regarding the dynamic changes within its ecological protection red lines. Simultaneously, it should leverage regional production advantages to achieve high-quality development while prioritising ecological and environmental conservation.</p>

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Long-term evaluation of sustainable development based on the evolution of ecological carrying capacity and ecological sensitivity analysis—taking Shanxi Province as an example

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月10日

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  • Xianqi Zhang,
  • He Ren,
  • Jiawen Liu,
  • Jie Zhu,
  • Yupeng Zheng

摘要

As a region heavily reliant on coal, Shanxi Province faces significant challenges in achieving ecological sustainability, necessitating a comprehensive assessment integrating quantitative pressure-state analysis with spatial sensitivity diagnostics. This study innovatively constructs an integrated framework combining land use change dynamics, landscape pattern indices, ecological footprint modelling, and multi-factor ecological sensitivity assessment to evaluate the province’s sustainable development status from 2000 to 2020. Findings indicate: (1) Accelerated land use change manifested as reductions in arable land and grassland, expansion of forest and construction land, alongside enhanced landscape aggregation and connectivity. (2) The ecological coordination coefficient has persistently deteriorated, with the ecological footprint index indicating severe unsustainability. However, the per capita ecological footprint surged from 5.3 hectares to 7.9 hectares, leading to a continuous worsening of the ecological deficit, where fossil fuel consumption contributed over 83% of the deficit. (3) Areas of high and extremely high ecological sensitivity have expanded significantly, particularly in the central and southeastern mountainous regions. The areas of low and very low sensitivity have decreased most significantly in the northeast and western regions. Consequently, Shanxi Province must maintain constant vigilance regarding the dynamic changes within its ecological protection red lines. Simultaneously, it should leverage regional production advantages to achieve high-quality development while prioritising ecological and environmental conservation.