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<p>This study examines the agricultural carbon rebound effect in Chinese city agglomerations, essential for maximizing net environmental benefits from advancements in agricultural technology. Utilizing a two-stage quantitative evaluation strategy, the study first applies an enhanced common frontier super-efficiency SBM model based on the dynamic DEA model to assess agricultural carbon emission efficiency. Then, a regression method evaluates the agricultural carbon rebound effect at the city level. Spatial kernel density estimation and Markov chain analysis are used to analyze the spatiotemporal patterns and forecast dynamic trends. Findings reveal: (1) China experiences a mild agricultural carbon rebound effect, averaging 5.42%, indicating that 94.58% of expected carbon reductions are realized, supporting the effectiveness of technological improvements. (2) The rebound effect shows regional heterogeneity, with stronger effects moving towards the southeast, underscoring the need for refined regional carbon management. (3) City agglomerations in a weak rebound state are predicted to achieve zero rebound, highlighting the potential and challenges for regional green development synergy.</p>

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Dynamic pattern and trend prediction of agricultural carbon rebound effect: evidence from urban agglomerations in China

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月23日

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  • Xu Wei,
  • Qixin Ma

摘要

This study examines the agricultural carbon rebound effect in Chinese city agglomerations, essential for maximizing net environmental benefits from advancements in agricultural technology. Utilizing a two-stage quantitative evaluation strategy, the study first applies an enhanced common frontier super-efficiency SBM model based on the dynamic DEA model to assess agricultural carbon emission efficiency. Then, a regression method evaluates the agricultural carbon rebound effect at the city level. Spatial kernel density estimation and Markov chain analysis are used to analyze the spatiotemporal patterns and forecast dynamic trends. Findings reveal: (1) China experiences a mild agricultural carbon rebound effect, averaging 5.42%, indicating that 94.58% of expected carbon reductions are realized, supporting the effectiveness of technological improvements. (2) The rebound effect shows regional heterogeneity, with stronger effects moving towards the southeast, underscoring the need for refined regional carbon management. (3) City agglomerations in a weak rebound state are predicted to achieve zero rebound, highlighting the potential and challenges for regional green development synergy.