Exploring the synergistic control paths of carbon and pollutant emissions from technological abatement perspective: A case study of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area
摘要
Technological progress driven by research and development (R&D) investment plays a pivotal role in promoting synergistic emission reductions of carbon dioxide and atmospheric pollutants. However, few studies have incorporated R&D investment into economic optimization models to investigate the synergistic emission reduction pathways supported by technological progress. Therefore, this study examines the synergistic control path of CO2 and atmospheric pollutants from the perspective of technological abatement. A multi-objective optimization model is developed by taking total economic output, total energy consumption, CO2 emissions, and atmospheric pollutant emissions as the objectives, and using R&D intensity and physical capital investment as key control variables. The genetic algorithm is applied to identify the optimal synergistic emission reduction pathway driven by technological progress. Using the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area as a case study, the results show that under the optimized scenario the average annual growth rates of R&D intensity and physical capital investment reach 5.25% and 4.24%, which represent increases of 1.79% and 0.02% relative to the reference scenario. The rise in R&D investment can stimulate technological progress and improve energy efficiency, which can reduce energy intensity and carbon intensity and advance the carbon peaking time by 5 years. Scenario analysis shows that the combined scenario with a 5% economic growth rate and substantial energy structure adjustments has the highest potential for synergistic emission reductions. The results suggest that the proposed methodology can balance the goals of economic growth and emission reductions of carbon and pollutants.