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<p>Amid rapid urbanization and industrialization, addressing the tension between urban expansion and the constraints of water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) represents a fundamental challenge for attaining sustainable development. This research establishes a comprehensive assessment framework integrating entropy weighting, an undesirable outputs-adjusted Super-SBM model, and a coupling coordination degree model to evaluate the spatiotemporal distribution patterns of urbanization level (UL), WRCC, and their coupling coordination degree (CCD) across 28 cities within the Urban Agglomeration in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River (UAMRYR). Furthermore, the Geodetector method is applied to identify predominant drivers affecting the CCD. The results reveal the following: During the 2009–2021 period, both the CCD and UL in the UAMRYR demonstrated a consistent upward trajectory. Concurrently, the WRCC within the region likewise exhibited a fluctuating yet overall ascending pattern. The barycenter-standard deviation ellipse of the CCD is distributed along a northwest-to-southeast axis, with the center of gravity exhibiting staged migration from southwest to northeast. Economic development, cultural construction, and consumption levels are identified as the key driving factors affecting the CCD. The interplay among multiple factors exerts a more significant influence than any single factor in isolation. This performance also reveals the complexity of urbanisation and water resource systems. The government should intensify efforts to promote and refine water-saving measures during the advancement of urbanisation, thereby laying the groundwork for establishing a comprehensive urban development system.</p> Graphical abstract <p></p>

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Coupling and coordinated development of urbanization and water resource carrying capacity in the Middle Yangtze River urban agglomerations under the influence of key driving factors

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月9日

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  • Liang Tang,
  • Hengkai Zhao,
  • Zhuofan Zhou,
  • Zixi Qian,
  • Shanshan Hou,
  • Bo Liu

摘要

Amid rapid urbanization and industrialization, addressing the tension between urban expansion and the constraints of water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) represents a fundamental challenge for attaining sustainable development. This research establishes a comprehensive assessment framework integrating entropy weighting, an undesirable outputs-adjusted Super-SBM model, and a coupling coordination degree model to evaluate the spatiotemporal distribution patterns of urbanization level (UL), WRCC, and their coupling coordination degree (CCD) across 28 cities within the Urban Agglomeration in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River (UAMRYR). Furthermore, the Geodetector method is applied to identify predominant drivers affecting the CCD. The results reveal the following: During the 2009–2021 period, both the CCD and UL in the UAMRYR demonstrated a consistent upward trajectory. Concurrently, the WRCC within the region likewise exhibited a fluctuating yet overall ascending pattern. The barycenter-standard deviation ellipse of the CCD is distributed along a northwest-to-southeast axis, with the center of gravity exhibiting staged migration from southwest to northeast. Economic development, cultural construction, and consumption levels are identified as the key driving factors affecting the CCD. The interplay among multiple factors exerts a more significant influence than any single factor in isolation. This performance also reveals the complexity of urbanisation and water resource systems. The government should intensify efforts to promote and refine water-saving measures during the advancement of urbanisation, thereby laying the groundwork for establishing a comprehensive urban development system.

Graphical abstract