<p>This research uses signaling theory and behavioral finance to explore how environmental, social, and governance (ESG) performance affects enterprise value estimation error, as well as the moderating influence of return on assets (ROA) in this context. We reveal that while ESG disclosure reduces information asymmetry and improves valuation accuracy, its effectiveness is threshold-dependent and nonlinear. The combined presence of a high ESG and a high ROA may induce investors’ over-extrapolation, thereby increasing valuation error. Conversely, a low ESG can be offset by a strong ROA, which acts as a substitute signal to mitigate undervaluation risk. This study applies a threshold regression to 349 global logistics companies over the period of 2018–2023. The findings indicate that a higher overall ESG generally lowers the valuation error, but the impact of ROA reverses across different ESG intervals. The Governance and Environmental dimensions provide a corrective effect at lower thresholds, whereas the Social dimension requires a higher standard. Key drivers of positive market perception include disclosures of carbon emission control, employee welfare, and the corporate social responsibility (CSR) strategy. An industry analysis reveals that the maritime sector leads in terms of ESG, whereas the land transport sector needs improvement. Our study provides practical guidance for investors and policymakers by demonstrating how ESG signals can be systematically incorporated into capital allocation and regulatory frameworks to enhance market efficiency and foster sustainable value creation.</p>