<p>Agricultural sustainable development is vital due to its direct impact on food security, ecological security, and social stability. This study measured and analyzed the Agricultural Sustainable Development Level (ASDL) across Shandong Province and quantified its key drivers. Results demonstrate a clear spatiotemporal evolution pattern, with ASDL showing overall improvement alongside significant ranking changes and distinct regional variations. The XGBoost-SHAP framework identified key internal drivers: primary industry share, rural residents’ disposable income, afforested area, and mechanical power per unit area. Major external factors included population density, GDP per capita, fiscal revenue scale, and ventilation coefficient. Among these factors, primary industry share, rural income, afforested area, and fiscal revenue scale positively influenced ASDL, while mechanical power intensity and GDP per capita negatively influenced it. Population density and ventilation coefficient exhibited significant threshold effects. These findings offer empirical support for formulating targeted policies to enhance agricultural sustainable development in Shandong Province.</p>