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<p>The agricultural sector is the economic backbone of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), yet smallholder farms, low productivity, and widespread food insecurity dominate it. To address these challenges, the African Union (AU) established the Comprehensive African Agricultural Development Program (CAADP), which aims to enhance agricultural production through increased government expenditure in the sector. This study evaluates the role of CAADP in improving agricultural production in SSA, with a specific focus on the impact of government agricultural expenditure. By using panel data from 35 SSA countries spanning 2003–2023, the study employs Panel Corrected Standard Errors (PCSE) to address econometric issues, with robustness checks using Fully Modified OLS (FMOLS) and Dynamic OLS (DOLS). Regional and income group heterogeneity analyses are also conducted. The findings reveal that government agricultural expenditure has a significant long-term positive impact on agricultural production. Specifically, government agricultural expenditure has a positive direct effect with 3.5% and 8.8% improvement for the agricultural production index and the agricultural value added, respectively, and a total indirect effect with 0.8% enhancement for each production index. Furthermore, mechanism analysis indicates that agricultural capital and intermediate inputs serve as key partial mediating mechanisms through which government spending enhances agricultural production. In addition, there is regional and income group heterogeneity in the agricultural production of SSA. This study provides empirical evidence supporting CAADP’s role in promoting agricultural production by prioritizing government spending in the sector. The findings underscore the importance of targeted investments in agricultural capital and intermediate inputs to sustainably boost productivity in SSA.</p>

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The impact mechanism of government expenditure on agricultural production under the framework of CAADP (Comprehensive African Agricultural Development Program)

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年12月2日

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  • Gezahegne Seyoum,
  • Wei Chen,
  • Yanan Wang,
  • Gemedo Furo,
  • Sun Zhang,
  • Haimeng Shi

摘要

The agricultural sector is the economic backbone of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), yet smallholder farms, low productivity, and widespread food insecurity dominate it. To address these challenges, the African Union (AU) established the Comprehensive African Agricultural Development Program (CAADP), which aims to enhance agricultural production through increased government expenditure in the sector. This study evaluates the role of CAADP in improving agricultural production in SSA, with a specific focus on the impact of government agricultural expenditure. By using panel data from 35 SSA countries spanning 2003–2023, the study employs Panel Corrected Standard Errors (PCSE) to address econometric issues, with robustness checks using Fully Modified OLS (FMOLS) and Dynamic OLS (DOLS). Regional and income group heterogeneity analyses are also conducted. The findings reveal that government agricultural expenditure has a significant long-term positive impact on agricultural production. Specifically, government agricultural expenditure has a positive direct effect with 3.5% and 8.8% improvement for the agricultural production index and the agricultural value added, respectively, and a total indirect effect with 0.8% enhancement for each production index. Furthermore, mechanism analysis indicates that agricultural capital and intermediate inputs serve as key partial mediating mechanisms through which government spending enhances agricultural production. In addition, there is regional and income group heterogeneity in the agricultural production of SSA. This study provides empirical evidence supporting CAADP’s role in promoting agricultural production by prioritizing government spending in the sector. The findings underscore the importance of targeted investments in agricultural capital and intermediate inputs to sustainably boost productivity in SSA.