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<p>The rate of urbanization in Ethiopia is an increasingly rapid affair, and in many instances it is moving faster than it can be planned, or is endangering sensitive ecological landscapes. Although there is more research environment on the impact of modeling in major cities like Addis Ababa, medium-sized cities like Hawassa are underrepresented even when they grow quickly around the vulnerable ecosystems like Lake Hawassa. The SLEUTH cellular automata model with the geospatial informatics was used in simulating the urban growth in Hawassa with three policy scenarios, business-as-usual (BAU), planned growth, and environmental protection. The model predicts the urban expansion using land data use aspect of 2002 to 2022 to extend to 2050. It has been found that with the BAU scenario, there will be increase in urban area by about 3,000 hectare which will imply loss of more than 1,600 hectare of agricultural and forest lands. Planned growth scenario results in minimal land use saving, but the environmental protection set up preserves 255 hectares through the introduction of ecological exclusion area into the simulation. This paper shows that scenario-based modeling of geospatial modeling can be applied to manage aspects of development and sustainability of the environment in rapidly growing secondary cities. It provides a replicable model in line with the Growth and Transformation Plan II (GTP-II) in Ethiopia and important Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs 11, 13, and 15). The policy implications determine the necessity to have designated ecological buffers, compact urban form, and enhanced spatial monitoring tools.</p>

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Scenario-based urban growth modeling for sustainable development: Land-use and environmental implications in Hawassa City, Ethiopia

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年11月4日

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  • Dejene Tesema Bulti,
  • Melkamu Desalegn Mamo

摘要

The rate of urbanization in Ethiopia is an increasingly rapid affair, and in many instances it is moving faster than it can be planned, or is endangering sensitive ecological landscapes. Although there is more research environment on the impact of modeling in major cities like Addis Ababa, medium-sized cities like Hawassa are underrepresented even when they grow quickly around the vulnerable ecosystems like Lake Hawassa. The SLEUTH cellular automata model with the geospatial informatics was used in simulating the urban growth in Hawassa with three policy scenarios, business-as-usual (BAU), planned growth, and environmental protection. The model predicts the urban expansion using land data use aspect of 2002 to 2022 to extend to 2050. It has been found that with the BAU scenario, there will be increase in urban area by about 3,000 hectare which will imply loss of more than 1,600 hectare of agricultural and forest lands. Planned growth scenario results in minimal land use saving, but the environmental protection set up preserves 255 hectares through the introduction of ecological exclusion area into the simulation. This paper shows that scenario-based modeling of geospatial modeling can be applied to manage aspects of development and sustainability of the environment in rapidly growing secondary cities. It provides a replicable model in line with the Growth and Transformation Plan II (GTP-II) in Ethiopia and important Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs 11, 13, and 15). The policy implications determine the necessity to have designated ecological buffers, compact urban form, and enhanced spatial monitoring tools.