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<p>Cropland ecosystem service (CES) trade-offs are an important issue for sustainable agricultural development. Previous studies have focused on spatiotemporal variations of CES and their trade-offs. However, there have been few attempts to clarify the driving mechanism for multiple CES trade-offs. In this study, we assessed six CESs in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) from 2000 to 2020, including food production (FP), water yield (WY), soil conservation (SC), carbon sequestration (CS), habitat quality (HQ), and landscape aesthetics (LA). Then, the hierarchical linear model (HLM) was employed to identify the multilevel determinants of FP and other CES trade-offs, considering the scale dependence of the drive factors. The results showed that compared to the baseline year, the intensities of cropland FP, WY, SC, CS, and LA increased by 31.77%, 12.20%, 6.50%, 10.97%, and 12.05%, respectively, while HQ decreased by 0.03%. FP and WY had a stable synergistic relationship, while interactions with SC, CS, and HQ shifted from synergistic to trade-offs, as opposed to LA. The HLM results indicated that nearly half of CES trade-off variations originated from within urban areas. Moreover, human factors from city scale, such as land management practices, policy interventions, and economic factors, were identified as the dominant drivers of temporal trade-off variations, with FP-SC, FP-CS, and FP-HQ trade-offs attributed 7.67%, 8.31%, and 3.53% more to human factors than to natural factors, respectively. Generally, croplands located in zones with favorable climatic condition, diverse land use, high rural incomes, a low density of economic activities, and low inputs of agricultural machinery were likely to possess weaker trade-offs. The effects of landscape fragmentation, urbanization, and the intensity of ecological engineering implementation on the trade-offs varied across CES pairs. Our study provides new insights into the analysis of driving mechanisms for CES trade-offs and also offers decision support for cropland conservation and management.</p>

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Spatiotemporal variation and multilevel determinants of cropland ecosystem services trade-offs in the Yangtze river economic belt: a hierarchical linear modeling approach

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年10月13日

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  • Yanfei Xiong,
  • Anlu Zhang,
  • Mengba Liu,
  • Daihao Tu

摘要

Cropland ecosystem service (CES) trade-offs are an important issue for sustainable agricultural development. Previous studies have focused on spatiotemporal variations of CES and their trade-offs. However, there have been few attempts to clarify the driving mechanism for multiple CES trade-offs. In this study, we assessed six CESs in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) from 2000 to 2020, including food production (FP), water yield (WY), soil conservation (SC), carbon sequestration (CS), habitat quality (HQ), and landscape aesthetics (LA). Then, the hierarchical linear model (HLM) was employed to identify the multilevel determinants of FP and other CES trade-offs, considering the scale dependence of the drive factors. The results showed that compared to the baseline year, the intensities of cropland FP, WY, SC, CS, and LA increased by 31.77%, 12.20%, 6.50%, 10.97%, and 12.05%, respectively, while HQ decreased by 0.03%. FP and WY had a stable synergistic relationship, while interactions with SC, CS, and HQ shifted from synergistic to trade-offs, as opposed to LA. The HLM results indicated that nearly half of CES trade-off variations originated from within urban areas. Moreover, human factors from city scale, such as land management practices, policy interventions, and economic factors, were identified as the dominant drivers of temporal trade-off variations, with FP-SC, FP-CS, and FP-HQ trade-offs attributed 7.67%, 8.31%, and 3.53% more to human factors than to natural factors, respectively. Generally, croplands located in zones with favorable climatic condition, diverse land use, high rural incomes, a low density of economic activities, and low inputs of agricultural machinery were likely to possess weaker trade-offs. The effects of landscape fragmentation, urbanization, and the intensity of ecological engineering implementation on the trade-offs varied across CES pairs. Our study provides new insights into the analysis of driving mechanisms for CES trade-offs and also offers decision support for cropland conservation and management.