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<p>Environmental, climatic, and resource pressures have driven China to create a green low-carbon circular developing economic system (GLCDES). However, scientifically evaluating its effectiveness is hindered by three critical gaps: fragmented assessments of the green, low-carbon, and circular dimensions; a reliance on biased weighting methods; and inadequate dynamic spatiotemporal analysis. To tackle these challenges, this study proposes a hybrid multi-criteria evaluation framework. We construct a systematic GLCDES index system with five criteria layers: development support, low-carbon development, green development, circular development, and economic–social development. A game theory-based combination weighting method integrates subjective AHP and CRITIC weights to balance policy priorities and empirical patterns. The VIKOR method enhanced by grey relational analysis evaluates provincial performance by optimizing group utility and individual regret. Using panel data from 30 Chinese provinces (2000–2021), this study reveals a significant improvement in China’s overall GLCDES levels, although regional imbalances persist. Spatiotemporal analysis confirms dynamic convergence and spatial agglomeration effects. Simultaneous equation models identify environmental regulation as a negative feedback mechanism that promotes green financing and technological innovation. This research offers a unified assessment framework, addresses methodological biases, and validates the “regulation–finance–innovation” transmission path, providing key policy implications.</p>

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Tracking China’s green low-carbon circular developing economic system: a hybrid multi-criteria evaluation framework

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年10月27日

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  • Hanglin Jin,
  • Bo Xiao,
  • Shouzhen Zeng

摘要

Environmental, climatic, and resource pressures have driven China to create a green low-carbon circular developing economic system (GLCDES). However, scientifically evaluating its effectiveness is hindered by three critical gaps: fragmented assessments of the green, low-carbon, and circular dimensions; a reliance on biased weighting methods; and inadequate dynamic spatiotemporal analysis. To tackle these challenges, this study proposes a hybrid multi-criteria evaluation framework. We construct a systematic GLCDES index system with five criteria layers: development support, low-carbon development, green development, circular development, and economic–social development. A game theory-based combination weighting method integrates subjective AHP and CRITIC weights to balance policy priorities and empirical patterns. The VIKOR method enhanced by grey relational analysis evaluates provincial performance by optimizing group utility and individual regret. Using panel data from 30 Chinese provinces (2000–2021), this study reveals a significant improvement in China’s overall GLCDES levels, although regional imbalances persist. Spatiotemporal analysis confirms dynamic convergence and spatial agglomeration effects. Simultaneous equation models identify environmental regulation as a negative feedback mechanism that promotes green financing and technological innovation. This research offers a unified assessment framework, addresses methodological biases, and validates the “regulation–finance–innovation” transmission path, providing key policy implications.