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<p>In recent years, China has continued to face challenges posed by population aging, declining fertility rates, and increasing non-marital trends, which have profound implications for regional coordinated development. Therefore, it is crucial to thoroughly examine the impact of changes in population size and structure on regional coordinated development. This study adopts a comprehensive weighting method, an improved coupling coordination model, and Spearman’s correlation analysis to evaluate the coupling coordination degree (CCD) and examine the mechanisms through which demographic factors influence it. An extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) model is subsequently employed to project CCD trends between 2024 and 2030. The results indicate that (1) from 1999 to 2023, Liaoning’s EPEE (Ecological-Population-Economic-Energy) system improved steadily from mild coordination to extreme coordination; (2) including the demographic subsystem reduced CCD compared with an ecological–economic–energy (EEE) system in most years, indicating that demographic factors constrain coordination; (3) natural population growth, sex ratio, and urban unemployment rate all negatively correlate with the CCD of the EPEE system; and (4) from 2024 to 2030, CCD is projected to decline slightly yet remain at a high coordination level. Therefore, we recommend integrating population dynamics into regional planning to reduce constraints and promote sustainable coordination.</p>

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Research on the impact of demographic change on regional sustainable development from the multidimensional coupling perspective

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年10月13日

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  • Dong-Feng Ren,
  • Peng Chang,
  • Ze-Yu Hu

摘要

In recent years, China has continued to face challenges posed by population aging, declining fertility rates, and increasing non-marital trends, which have profound implications for regional coordinated development. Therefore, it is crucial to thoroughly examine the impact of changes in population size and structure on regional coordinated development. This study adopts a comprehensive weighting method, an improved coupling coordination model, and Spearman’s correlation analysis to evaluate the coupling coordination degree (CCD) and examine the mechanisms through which demographic factors influence it. An extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) model is subsequently employed to project CCD trends between 2024 and 2030. The results indicate that (1) from 1999 to 2023, Liaoning’s EPEE (Ecological-Population-Economic-Energy) system improved steadily from mild coordination to extreme coordination; (2) including the demographic subsystem reduced CCD compared with an ecological–economic–energy (EEE) system in most years, indicating that demographic factors constrain coordination; (3) natural population growth, sex ratio, and urban unemployment rate all negatively correlate with the CCD of the EPEE system; and (4) from 2024 to 2030, CCD is projected to decline slightly yet remain at a high coordination level. Therefore, we recommend integrating population dynamics into regional planning to reduce constraints and promote sustainable coordination.