Economic, employment, and carbon emissions trade-offs under China’s dual circulation strategy
摘要
In response to global economic uncertainties, China proposed a “dual circulation” development strategy that positions domestic demand as the key driver of growth. This shift in focus has made balancing economic expansion, employment, and carbon reduction a central concern. In this study, a novel GDP decomposition framework from a value chain perspective designed to differentiate domestic and international demand, establishing a connection between the dual circulation strategy and value chain routes, has been developed. This framework was applied to analyze demand-driven value added, employment, and carbon emissions in China from 2000 to 2018, then examined their trade-offs across value chain routes, sectors, and bilateral trade partners. The results indicate that China’s growing contribution to the global economy, employment, and carbon emissions was predominantly driven by domestic demand. Activities driven by domestic demand and international exports via onefold value chains achieved a more balanced relationship between socioeconomic benefits and environmental costs. Additionally, most Chinese sectors, excluding certain high-tech manufacturing industries, relied heavily on domestic demand. Sectors with strong domestic demand dependence exhibited more favorable trade-offs among value added, carbon emissions, and employment. In terms of bilateral trade, exchanges with the USA, Germany, and the UK demonstrated improved mutual socioeconomic outcomes and lower global emissions, whereas trade with India and Brazil exhibited greater imbalances. Complex global value chains were associated with greater imbalances between socioeconomic benefits and carbon emissions in China’s imports and exports.