<p>The developmental state of vegetation serves as an important indicator reflecting the evolutionary direction of the eco-geological environment in mining areas affected by coal exploitation. Currently, systematic research on the eco-geological environment carrying capacity (EGECC) in coal mining regions remains insufficient, particularly regarding the vegetation response mechanisms across different carrying capacity zones under mining disturbances. This study focuses on the Lingwu mining area, combining remote sensing imagery with field survey data to establish an EGECC evaluation system using the Fuzzy Delphi Analytic Hierarchy Process (FDAHP). It identifies pre-mining EGECC zones and examines the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of fractional vegetation cover (FVC) under mining impacts, investigating the primary driving factors behind FVC changes. Results indicate that the study area’s EGECC can be classified into three levels (low, moderate, and high), with moderate and high levels being dominant overall. Vegetation coverage showed a progressive decline from high to low EGECC zones, though medium and medium-low FVC levels prevailed across all zones. Following coal exploitation, all three EGECC zones exhibited significant FVC reduction, with the low-capacity zone suffering the most severe deterioration. However, vegetation restoration efforts have led to a notable overall improvement in FVC. Groundwater depth was identified as the most critical factor influencing vegetation growth, while interactions between soil type, surface elevation, and groundwater depth also significantly affected FVC evolution. These findings highlight the need for implementing zonal ecological management strategies to promote sustainable mining practices.</p>