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<p>The transition to new energy vehicles (NEVs) is widely considered a key strategy for China to combat air pollution and achieve its carbon neutrality goal. However, the net environmental impacts of NEV consumption remain controversial, especially when accounting for spatial spillovers and energy rebound effects. The energy rebound effect, rooted in the Jevons paradox, suggests that improved efficiency can reduce costs but can inadvertently stimulate increased energy consumption, potentially offsetting the expected environmental benefits of NEVs. Spatial spillovers arise as the growing demand of NEVs increases electricity consumption and battery production, contributing to elevated pollution emissions. Furthermore, the rapid expansion of NEV production, despite relatively underdeveloped manufacturing technologies, intensifies environmental pressures. This study empirically investigates the relationship between NEV consumption and air pollution in China and explores the mechanisms through which NEV usage affects environmental outcomes. We also examine the regional heterogeneity of these effects, reflecting variations in industrial structure and infrastructure across provinces. Using provincial panel data from March 2016 to December 2023, we employ a spatial Durbin model to estimate the direct and spillover effects of NEV consumption on air pollution, and we conduct a mechanism analysis to quantify the energy rebound effect. Our results show that increasing NEV consumption does not necessarily improve air quality; in fact, it may exacerbate pollution because of the rebound effect. Notable regional disparities are observed: Eastern provinces show significant positive spillover effects, whereas such effects are statistically insignificant in central and western regions. For addressing the negative environmental impacts of NEV consumption, a collaborative approach between policymakers and automakers is essential. Policymakers should foster green innovation through stringent environmental regulations and incentive structures, while automakers need to enhance battery recycling technologies and establish low-carbon supply chains. Additionally, both sectors must implement strict emission controls across the NEV life cycle, accelerate clean energy adoption for sustainable charging infrastructure, and strengthen regional coordination to address the rebound effect. Coordinated efforts between government and industry are crucial for ensuring the long-term sustainability and environmental effectiveness of NEV development.</p>

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Could new energy vehicle consumption truly reduce air pollution in China? Perspective from the energy rebound effect

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年10月16日

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  • Qijun Qiu,
  • Feng Tian,
  • Liangpeng Wu

摘要

The transition to new energy vehicles (NEVs) is widely considered a key strategy for China to combat air pollution and achieve its carbon neutrality goal. However, the net environmental impacts of NEV consumption remain controversial, especially when accounting for spatial spillovers and energy rebound effects. The energy rebound effect, rooted in the Jevons paradox, suggests that improved efficiency can reduce costs but can inadvertently stimulate increased energy consumption, potentially offsetting the expected environmental benefits of NEVs. Spatial spillovers arise as the growing demand of NEVs increases electricity consumption and battery production, contributing to elevated pollution emissions. Furthermore, the rapid expansion of NEV production, despite relatively underdeveloped manufacturing technologies, intensifies environmental pressures. This study empirically investigates the relationship between NEV consumption and air pollution in China and explores the mechanisms through which NEV usage affects environmental outcomes. We also examine the regional heterogeneity of these effects, reflecting variations in industrial structure and infrastructure across provinces. Using provincial panel data from March 2016 to December 2023, we employ a spatial Durbin model to estimate the direct and spillover effects of NEV consumption on air pollution, and we conduct a mechanism analysis to quantify the energy rebound effect. Our results show that increasing NEV consumption does not necessarily improve air quality; in fact, it may exacerbate pollution because of the rebound effect. Notable regional disparities are observed: Eastern provinces show significant positive spillover effects, whereas such effects are statistically insignificant in central and western regions. For addressing the negative environmental impacts of NEV consumption, a collaborative approach between policymakers and automakers is essential. Policymakers should foster green innovation through stringent environmental regulations and incentive structures, while automakers need to enhance battery recycling technologies and establish low-carbon supply chains. Additionally, both sectors must implement strict emission controls across the NEV life cycle, accelerate clean energy adoption for sustainable charging infrastructure, and strengthen regional coordination to address the rebound effect. Coordinated efforts between government and industry are crucial for ensuring the long-term sustainability and environmental effectiveness of NEV development.