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<p>Against the backdrop of China’s high-quality economic development and the deepening advancement of new urbanization, the intertwined challenges of water scarcity, energy supply-demand imbalances, and food security risks have made the synergistic development of the Water-Energy-Food Nexus (WEF Nexus) system a critical strategic issue for regional sustainable development. This study innovatively constructs a comprehensive evaluation index system for the WEF Nexus at the provincial scale, employs a coupling coordination degree model to quantitatively assess the level of coordinated development, and utilizes a geographical detector model to deeply analyze the mechanisms and interactive effects of key driving factors. The main findings are as follows: (1) The coordinated development of China’s provincial WEF Nexus exhibits significant spatial heterogeneity, with the overall system in a state of mild imbalance. The northeastern region forms a distinct high-value cluster, while the central and western regions generally remain at low levels. Temporal evolution trends reveal a “polarization and overall weakening” pattern, where the spatial agglomeration of high-coordination provinces diminishes, and the proportion of low-coordination provinces continues to rise. (2) Agricultural modernization factors (effective irrigated area, agricultural fertilizer application, and total agricultural machinery power) are the core variables driving WEF Nexus coordination, reflecting the foundational role of food security in the nexus system. (3) A significant two-factor enhancement effect exists among influencing factors, but the intensity of synergistic interactions shows marginal diminishing returns. This nonlinear weakening relationship exacerbates system vulnerability and leads to a growing number of imbalanced provinces. Future policies should focus on building a multi-level resource allocation network, innovating cross-sectoral collaborative governance models, implementing intelligent technology promotion programs, and improving dynamic policy regulation mechanisms to provide institutional safeguards for the sustainable development of the WEF Nexus.</p>

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Water-Energy-Food Nexus coupling coordination across Chinese provinces: Spatiotemporal evolution and interactive effects of influencing factors

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年8月22日

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  • Chenhuan Kou,
  • Donghan Meng,
  • Fuzhen Gu

摘要

Against the backdrop of China’s high-quality economic development and the deepening advancement of new urbanization, the intertwined challenges of water scarcity, energy supply-demand imbalances, and food security risks have made the synergistic development of the Water-Energy-Food Nexus (WEF Nexus) system a critical strategic issue for regional sustainable development. This study innovatively constructs a comprehensive evaluation index system for the WEF Nexus at the provincial scale, employs a coupling coordination degree model to quantitatively assess the level of coordinated development, and utilizes a geographical detector model to deeply analyze the mechanisms and interactive effects of key driving factors. The main findings are as follows: (1) The coordinated development of China’s provincial WEF Nexus exhibits significant spatial heterogeneity, with the overall system in a state of mild imbalance. The northeastern region forms a distinct high-value cluster, while the central and western regions generally remain at low levels. Temporal evolution trends reveal a “polarization and overall weakening” pattern, where the spatial agglomeration of high-coordination provinces diminishes, and the proportion of low-coordination provinces continues to rise. (2) Agricultural modernization factors (effective irrigated area, agricultural fertilizer application, and total agricultural machinery power) are the core variables driving WEF Nexus coordination, reflecting the foundational role of food security in the nexus system. (3) A significant two-factor enhancement effect exists among influencing factors, but the intensity of synergistic interactions shows marginal diminishing returns. This nonlinear weakening relationship exacerbates system vulnerability and leads to a growing number of imbalanced provinces. Future policies should focus on building a multi-level resource allocation network, innovating cross-sectoral collaborative governance models, implementing intelligent technology promotion programs, and improving dynamic policy regulation mechanisms to provide institutional safeguards for the sustainable development of the WEF Nexus.