<p>As the e-commerce sector grows quickly, cutting carbon emissions from express packaging has become a crucial part of encouraging green development. Currently, China’s express packaging policy primarily focuses on controlling production-side factors while neglecting consumer-side regulations regarding carbon responsibility, restricting the overall effectiveness of green transformation. This study constructs a tripartite evolutionary game model (EGM) involving the government, e-commerce enterprises, and consumers to analyze the dynamic synergistic pathways for recycling express packaging within the context of green transformation using MATLAB numerical simulations. The results indicate that there are three evolutionary stable strategies (ESS) within the system, each corresponding to different stages of green transformation for express packaging. The role of government incentives and regulations is pivotal in facilitating this transformation. It is recommended that the intensity coefficients for government incentives and subsidies be maintained within ranges of 0–0.6 and 0.2–0.6, respectively. Consumers’ low-carbon consumption behavior significantly influences the effectiveness of this transition; their strategic choices directly impact decisions made by e-commerce enterprises. Measures such as consumption vouchers, green points, and carbon credits can promote low-carbon consumption, but the deposit system will initially deter the willingness to consume. Based on these findings, a green coordination mechanism should be established, where the government establishes a personal carbon accounting system and rationally adjusts incentive and subsidy coefficients. Meanwhile, e-commerce enterprises should reasonably set deposits and combine them with coupons and price reductions at the mature stage, promoting the green transformation of express packaging recycling.</p>