Effects of urban spatial structure on the level of sustainable development goal 11.1: evidence from 265 cities in China
摘要
With the socio-economic development, urban housing issues have gradually become prominent. In response, the United Nations proposed Sustainable Development Goal 11.1 (Housing Sustainable Development Goal, HSDG) to address urban sustainability challenges related to housing. As a spatial representation of urban development, Urban Spatial Structure (USS) can profoundly influence HSDG levels through multidimensional features such as urban centrality, urban sprawl, urban accessibility, urban expansion, and urban shape. However, current research lacks an in-depth analysis of this impact mechanism, including a comprehensive examination of how multidimensional USS affects HSDG levels, as well as an exploration of potential characteristics such as threshold effects and spatial heterogeneity in this impact. Therefore, this study innovatively integrates traditional statistical models, geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR), and spatial econometrics methods to conduct an empirical analysis based on Panel data from 265 prefecture-level cities in China. The main findings are as follows: (1) Urban sprawl has a significant positive impact on HSDG, while urban shape has a significant negative impact. In contrast, urban centrality, accessibility, and expansion show no statistically significant impact on HSDG. (2) The influence of USS indicators on HSDG exhibits a threshold effect: when city population size exceeds a certain threshold, both the direction and magnitude of their impact shift. (3) Spatially, the effects of USS on HSDG are heterogeneous. Moreover, due to spatial spillover effects, a city’s spatial structure can also influence its neighboring cities. The findings of this study provide important insights into understanding how USS affects HSDG, contributing to the advancement of sustainable urban development strategies.