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<p>In China's energy performance contracting (EPC) projects for existing buildings, the lack of analysis of the interaction of risk factors and hierarchical transfer mechanisms has limited the effectiveness of risk prevention and control strategies of energy service companies (ESCOs).This paper reveals the causal attributes and hierarchical relationships of risk factors from the ESCO perspective by combining DEMATEL and ISM models. It is found that: policy adjustment, energy efficiency program design, contract completeness, project financing, and actual energy-saving benefits have higher centrality, respectively 2.138, 2.548, 2.206, 2.406, and 4.163, which are key risk factors. In addition, policy adjustment is at the bottom of the hierarchy, with a cause degree of 1.906, which profoundly affects the remaining risk factors; and actual energy-saving benefits is at the top of the hierarchy, with a cause degree of -2.834, which suggests that whether or not energy-saving benefits can be achieved is affected by the linkage of the remaining factors. At the practical level, ESCOs should pay close attention to policy changes and improve contract management mechanisms so as to ensure predictable returns. At the same time, policymakers may consider introducing more favorable policies, such as green finance and the establishment of a risk compensation fund, so as to alleviate the financial pressure on energy service companies. This study provides a basis for prioritizing decision-making on risk management in EPC projects for existing buildings.</p>

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Analysis of risk factors and an influence path study of existing building energy performance contracting project based on the DEMATEL-ISM model

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年7月8日

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  • Chao Tang,
  • Chu Yang,
  • Daiheng He,
  • Yang Xu,
  • Yingying Xiang,
  • Lingchun Hou

摘要

In China's energy performance contracting (EPC) projects for existing buildings, the lack of analysis of the interaction of risk factors and hierarchical transfer mechanisms has limited the effectiveness of risk prevention and control strategies of energy service companies (ESCOs).This paper reveals the causal attributes and hierarchical relationships of risk factors from the ESCO perspective by combining DEMATEL and ISM models. It is found that: policy adjustment, energy efficiency program design, contract completeness, project financing, and actual energy-saving benefits have higher centrality, respectively 2.138, 2.548, 2.206, 2.406, and 4.163, which are key risk factors. In addition, policy adjustment is at the bottom of the hierarchy, with a cause degree of 1.906, which profoundly affects the remaining risk factors; and actual energy-saving benefits is at the top of the hierarchy, with a cause degree of -2.834, which suggests that whether or not energy-saving benefits can be achieved is affected by the linkage of the remaining factors. At the practical level, ESCOs should pay close attention to policy changes and improve contract management mechanisms so as to ensure predictable returns. At the same time, policymakers may consider introducing more favorable policies, such as green finance and the establishment of a risk compensation fund, so as to alleviate the financial pressure on energy service companies. This study provides a basis for prioritizing decision-making on risk management in EPC projects for existing buildings.