<p>The application of anaerobic digestion technology to crop residues plays a vital role in advancing sustainable agricultural development. In China, townships act as key regulators, essential for evaluating the energy potential of waste and implementing agricultural waste recycling policies. However, data at the township level often suffers from issues such as incomplete collection, inconsistent quality, and omissions. To address these challenges, we employed a multi-source data approach—including official statistics, field surveys, remote sensing imagery, and laboratory experiments—to ensure comprehensive and reliable data coverage. This study utilizes four distinct models: Biochemical Methane Potential, a simplified Anaerobic Digestion Model No. 1, Gradient Boosting, and Random Forest to calculate biogas production potential from crop residues. By integrating these models with Geographic Information Systems, we delineate the potential for electricity generation from biogas production at the township level throughout China. Despite variations in the input data across different models, the maximum output discrepancy is limited to 13.4% (i.e., the maximum relative deviation between each model’s output and the mean output for each crop), indicating minor differences. This finding underscores the flexibility in model selection based on the availability of data. Moreover, our analysis reveals that local biomass straw residue can fulfill around 11% of residential electricity demands. This research introduces an innovative and comprehensive methodology that integrates multiple predictive models with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to assess the energy potential of crop residues for biogas production at the township scale, thereby providing a robust framework to inform energy policy development and management strategies.</p>

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Mapping the potential of biogas production for electricity generation from agricultural crop residues at the town scale in China

  • Zheng Yang,
  • Hongqing Li,
  • Bo Fu,
  • Bing Xue,
  • Vera Susanne Rotter

摘要

The application of anaerobic digestion technology to crop residues plays a vital role in advancing sustainable agricultural development. In China, townships act as key regulators, essential for evaluating the energy potential of waste and implementing agricultural waste recycling policies. However, data at the township level often suffers from issues such as incomplete collection, inconsistent quality, and omissions. To address these challenges, we employed a multi-source data approach—including official statistics, field surveys, remote sensing imagery, and laboratory experiments—to ensure comprehensive and reliable data coverage. This study utilizes four distinct models: Biochemical Methane Potential, a simplified Anaerobic Digestion Model No. 1, Gradient Boosting, and Random Forest to calculate biogas production potential from crop residues. By integrating these models with Geographic Information Systems, we delineate the potential for electricity generation from biogas production at the township level throughout China. Despite variations in the input data across different models, the maximum output discrepancy is limited to 13.4% (i.e., the maximum relative deviation between each model’s output and the mean output for each crop), indicating minor differences. This finding underscores the flexibility in model selection based on the availability of data. Moreover, our analysis reveals that local biomass straw residue can fulfill around 11% of residential electricity demands. This research introduces an innovative and comprehensive methodology that integrates multiple predictive models with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to assess the energy potential of crop residues for biogas production at the township scale, thereby providing a robust framework to inform energy policy development and management strategies.