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<p>Persistent carbon lock-in (CLI) poses a formidable barrier to urban decarbonization and sustainable development. Market-driven diffusion of green technologies alone has proven insufficient, highlighting the need for government environmental governance (GEG). Using city-level panel data and employing nonlinear fixed-effects regressions alongside spatial econometric models, this paper quantifies the effects and mechanisms of pluralistic GEG on CLI. The results indicate: (1) Administrative-command governance (ACG) and market-regulated governance (MRG) exhibit an inverted U-shaped relationship with CLI, while public-supervised governance (PSG) exerts an immediate inhibitory effect. (2) The ACG inhibits CLI only in western cities, while MRG and PSG are effective in central and eastern cities. Higher levels of institutionalization, marketization, and digitization amplify governance effects of each model. (3) Pluralistic GEG functions through mechanisms of source prevention, process control, and end treatment. In the source prevention stage, it significantly enhances the quality and quantity of green technological innovation. During the process control stage, it markedly improves green energy efficiency but does not inhibit CLI through total energy consumption control. At the end treatment stage, it mitigates CLI from both the production and consumption sides by promoting industrial transformation and public consumption upgrading. (4) Pluralistic GEG exhibits significant spatial spillover effects. These findings suggest that tailored combinations of ACG, MRG, and PSG, supported by stronger institutions, market integration, and digital infrastructure, can accelerate the shift toward a decarbonized economic system and guide environmental governance reforms worldwide.</p>

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Cracking the carbon lock-in dilemma: a multi-path exploration of urban green transformation from an institutional perspective

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年5月28日

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  • Zheng Hu,
  • Yingzhi Xu,
  • Yi Li

摘要

Persistent carbon lock-in (CLI) poses a formidable barrier to urban decarbonization and sustainable development. Market-driven diffusion of green technologies alone has proven insufficient, highlighting the need for government environmental governance (GEG). Using city-level panel data and employing nonlinear fixed-effects regressions alongside spatial econometric models, this paper quantifies the effects and mechanisms of pluralistic GEG on CLI. The results indicate: (1) Administrative-command governance (ACG) and market-regulated governance (MRG) exhibit an inverted U-shaped relationship with CLI, while public-supervised governance (PSG) exerts an immediate inhibitory effect. (2) The ACG inhibits CLI only in western cities, while MRG and PSG are effective in central and eastern cities. Higher levels of institutionalization, marketization, and digitization amplify governance effects of each model. (3) Pluralistic GEG functions through mechanisms of source prevention, process control, and end treatment. In the source prevention stage, it significantly enhances the quality and quantity of green technological innovation. During the process control stage, it markedly improves green energy efficiency but does not inhibit CLI through total energy consumption control. At the end treatment stage, it mitigates CLI from both the production and consumption sides by promoting industrial transformation and public consumption upgrading. (4) Pluralistic GEG exhibits significant spatial spillover effects. These findings suggest that tailored combinations of ACG, MRG, and PSG, supported by stronger institutions, market integration, and digital infrastructure, can accelerate the shift toward a decarbonized economic system and guide environmental governance reforms worldwide.