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<p>Carbon storage (CS) plays a critical role in addressing climate change, protecting ecosystems, and achieving sustainable development. Land use in urban agglomeration is of great significance for the carbon storage and carbon neutrality. This study employs the PLUS-InVEST model to analyze and predict the dynamics of Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) and carbon storagein the Guanzhong Plain City Cluster in China from 2000 to 2030. The results reveal that between 2000 and 2020, the study area witnessed a 5.49% decline in cultivated land, while construction land expanded by 40.64%. This significant shift in LULC led to a substantial cumulative reduction in CS, amounting to 20.95 × 10^6&#xa0;Mg. Spatially, high CS areas are predominantly concentrated in the southern Qinling forest region, whereas low CS areas were scattered across Xi’an and the Yellow River basin. Scenario predictions for 2030 reveal that CS is ranked in descending order as follows: the cultivated land protection scenario (1516.37 × 10^6&#xa0;Mg) &gt; the ecological protection scenario (1516.35 × 10^6&#xa0;Mg) &gt; the natural development scenario (1507.64 × 10^6&#xa0;Mg) &gt; the economic development scenario (1500.98 × 10^6&#xa0;Mg). This study propose three recommendations: Enhance the protection and management of cultivated land; Promote ecological restoration and enhance carbon sequestration; Strengthen land-use planning.</p>

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Estimating the impact of regional land use change on carbon storage: Evidence from Guanzhong Plain city cluster, China

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年5月13日

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  • Jialin He,
  • Jinbo Song,
  • Zhe Cheng

摘要

Carbon storage (CS) plays a critical role in addressing climate change, protecting ecosystems, and achieving sustainable development. Land use in urban agglomeration is of great significance for the carbon storage and carbon neutrality. This study employs the PLUS-InVEST model to analyze and predict the dynamics of Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) and carbon storagein the Guanzhong Plain City Cluster in China from 2000 to 2030. The results reveal that between 2000 and 2020, the study area witnessed a 5.49% decline in cultivated land, while construction land expanded by 40.64%. This significant shift in LULC led to a substantial cumulative reduction in CS, amounting to 20.95 × 10^6 Mg. Spatially, high CS areas are predominantly concentrated in the southern Qinling forest region, whereas low CS areas were scattered across Xi’an and the Yellow River basin. Scenario predictions for 2030 reveal that CS is ranked in descending order as follows: the cultivated land protection scenario (1516.37 × 10^6 Mg) > the ecological protection scenario (1516.35 × 10^6 Mg) > the natural development scenario (1507.64 × 10^6 Mg) > the economic development scenario (1500.98 × 10^6 Mg). This study propose three recommendations: Enhance the protection and management of cultivated land; Promote ecological restoration and enhance carbon sequestration; Strengthen land-use planning.