<p>Currently, China is the largest emitter of greenhouse gases and biggest consumer of energy. Therefore, it is of great significance to clarify CO₂ emissions status, analyze the main affecting factors and predict the future trends to achieve its goal of carbon neutrality smoothly. This paper uses the panel data of 30 provinces in Chinese Mainland from 2012 to 2022 to empirically test the impact of different factors on CO₂ emissions with the SDM model, and uses the SVR model to simulate and predict the peak time and peak value of CO₂ emissions under different scenarios, and finally analyzes the CO₂ emission reduction potential of each province. Research has shown that: (1) The CO₂ emissions in various provinces of China exhibit a spatiotemporal evolution characterized by the coexistence of spatial agglomeration and spatial differentiation, and the stability of spatial distribution gradually strengthens; (2) Factors such as industrial structure, urbanization, and energy-saving and emission reduction policies can effectively reduce CO₂ emissions; (3) From a national perspective, in both of green development and technology breakthrough scenarios, the peaking goal of CO₂ emissions by 2030 can be achieved, but there are significant differences among regions; (4) The CO₂ emission reduction potential of northern provinces is higher than that of southern provinces. Based on it, this paper provides suggestions such as promoting the transition of energy structure, enhancing the development of the national carbon emission trading system market, developing differentiated policies for each region, and strengthening cooperation between northern and southern provinces.</p>