Scholarlink

<p>The South China Karst (SCK) represents a prototypical ecologically fragile region. Traditional vulnerability assessments, which focus primarily on natural ecosystems, fail to account for integrated Socio-Ecological Systems (SES). This gap underscores the need for an in-depth analysis of regional vulnerability to inform sustainable development strategies. In this study, we propose a susceptibility-adaptability-based vulnerability assessment framework, specifically designed for the core karst desertification control (KDC) zone in southern China. Using integrated metrics, geospatial analysis, and geographic detectors, we quantify vulnerability trends (2010–2020) and identify key drivers. Multi-scenario projections derived from ordered weighted averaging (OWA) guide policy recommendations. Key findings include: (1) System vulnerability declined steadily over the study period, with low-to-moderate risk zones increasing from 72.58% (2010) to 88.14% (2020). Elevated vulnerability persisted in northern and southern peripheries, attributed to anthropogenic pressures. (2) Social factors-notably demographic concentration and construction land expansion-exerted greater influence on vulnerability than ecological factors. Synergistic interactions among drivers amplified impacts (maximum q-value = 0.8655), emphasizing socio-economic determinants. (3) The sustainable development scenario (α = 0.8) could significantly reduce vulnerability, whereas the economy-priority scenario (α = 1.2) would expand high-risk areas. The study suggests that population aggregation and land development intensity should be prioritized for regulation, while enhancing the synergistic effects of landscape pattern optimization and ecological restoration. Multi-factor synergistic governance strategies should be adopted to achieve dynamic balance.</p>

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

Social-ecological system vulnerability in the core area of desertification control in South China Karst: Spatial—temporal feature, driver factors and scenario simulation

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年5月2日

查看全文
  • Jiaying Chen,
  • Kangning Xiong,
  • Lu Luo,
  • Wenfang Zhang,
  • Yi Chen

摘要

The South China Karst (SCK) represents a prototypical ecologically fragile region. Traditional vulnerability assessments, which focus primarily on natural ecosystems, fail to account for integrated Socio-Ecological Systems (SES). This gap underscores the need for an in-depth analysis of regional vulnerability to inform sustainable development strategies. In this study, we propose a susceptibility-adaptability-based vulnerability assessment framework, specifically designed for the core karst desertification control (KDC) zone in southern China. Using integrated metrics, geospatial analysis, and geographic detectors, we quantify vulnerability trends (2010–2020) and identify key drivers. Multi-scenario projections derived from ordered weighted averaging (OWA) guide policy recommendations. Key findings include: (1) System vulnerability declined steadily over the study period, with low-to-moderate risk zones increasing from 72.58% (2010) to 88.14% (2020). Elevated vulnerability persisted in northern and southern peripheries, attributed to anthropogenic pressures. (2) Social factors-notably demographic concentration and construction land expansion-exerted greater influence on vulnerability than ecological factors. Synergistic interactions among drivers amplified impacts (maximum q-value = 0.8655), emphasizing socio-economic determinants. (3) The sustainable development scenario (α = 0.8) could significantly reduce vulnerability, whereas the economy-priority scenario (α = 1.2) would expand high-risk areas. The study suggests that population aggregation and land development intensity should be prioritized for regulation, while enhancing the synergistic effects of landscape pattern optimization and ecological restoration. Multi-factor synergistic governance strategies should be adopted to achieve dynamic balance.