How can Chinese petrochemical companies achieve the “Dual Carbon” goal? A scenario-based system dynamics analysis
摘要
The petrochemical industry is a traditionally high-energy-consuming sector in China. It is imperative to implement effective carbon emission reduction strategies in the petrochemical industry when China aims to achieve carbon peak by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060. This research develops simulation scenarios based on system dynamics (SD) simulation model that are specifically designed for implementing carbon emission reduction strategies in the Sinopec Yangzi (SY) Company, a representative Chinese petrochemical company situated within the industrial parks of China's eastern provincial capitals. The simulation results reveal that the implementation of an aggressive carbon emission investment strategy yields the most significant reduction effect for the Chinese petrochemical companies. The corresponding carbon emissions are projected to decline starting in 2030, with carbon neutrality achievable by 2058. To ensure the attainment of carbon neutrality no later than 2060, Chinese petrochemical companies should prioritize the innovation of carbon reduction technologies in the short term and attach importance to carbon capture, utilization, and storage in the long run. Finally, policy recommendations for Chinese government and petrochemical corporations to promote economic development and carbon emission reduction investments are proposed. The main contributions of this research are as follows: (1) this research focuses on a typical Chinese petrochemical company, enriching the exploration of simulation for carbon emission investment strategies; (2) this paper designs simulation scenarios by SD model and addresses the limitations of previous research on unilateral analysis; (3) this study develops a comprehensive three-layer research framework including scenario analysis, system simulation and policy analysis, which can also be extended to other high-emission industries.