“Enhancing flood vulnerability assessment in eastern Jeddah watersheds using advanced multicriteria decision analysis and sensitivity evaluation”
摘要
Flood vulnerability assessment is crucial for effective flood management, particularly in urban areas prone to rapid development. Floods in Jeddah have caused significant destruction and loss of life in recent years, highlighting the urgent need for improved flood vulnerability assessment. This work identifies flood-vulnerable zones in the eastern Jeddah watersheds using the Geographical Information System (GIS) framework and multicriteria decision-making (MCDM) techniques, including Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), Best Worst Method (BWM), and Full Consistency Method (FUCOM).The work incorporates factors such as rainfall (RD), curve number (CN), surface elevation (SE), land use/land cover (LULC), slope, stream density (SD), topographic witness index (TWI), sediment transport index (STI), and stream power index (SPI) to assess flood vulnerability. Flood hazard maps were produced through a weighted overlay spatial analysis after weights for these parameters were applied using AHP, BWM, and FUCOM. The results of the three techniques were validated using statistical indices, including the area under the curve (AUC). The findings show that, on average, 36.3% of watershed areas are highly flood-vulnerable, with all three techniques indicating a similar vulnerability distribution. However, FUCOM outperformed AHP and BWM in terms of prediction (AUC = 88%) and success (AUC = 87%) rates, making it the most accurate method for flood hazard mapping. Following the sensitivity analysis of the vulnerability maps derived from MCDA, it was determined that topographical factors, particularly slope and elevation, are the most influential in flood susceptibility. In light of these findings, it is recommended to implement water harvesting strategies such as retention or storm infiltration basins in low-elevation and sloped areas to effectively reduce flood risk at watershed outlets.