Agricultural productivity under climate change vulnerability: does carbon reduction paths matter for sustainable agriculture?
摘要
Agriculture is vital to Pakistan’s economy but faces challenges from climate change and environmental degradation. Understanding factors that affect agricultural productivity is essential for sustainable agriculture and economic growth. This study investigated the impact of climate, land use, economic, and environmental factors on agricultural productivity in Pakistan using time series data from 1961 to 2018. This study employs the Auto-Regressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) model to determine the long- and short-run relationship between climate change and crop production index. ARDL is a reliable method even with variables of different orders of integration I(0) and I(1). It is suitable for small sample sizes and provides robust estimates. This study used the Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Phillips-Perron tests to check the linearity of all the variables. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Phillips-Perron tests confirm that rainfall and temperature are linear at the level, while the rest of the variables are linear in their first difference. Additionally, the coefficient of bound cointegration (9.864) at 1% is greater than the upper bound values, confirming cointegration among the variables. The coefficient of cereal cropland area is (0.757), which confirms a significantly positive association between cereal cropland area and agricultural productivity in both the long- and short-run, whereas annual rainfall (0.166) and agricultural value added (0.665) are positively significant with the crop production index in the long run only. Annual average temperature (-0.989) significantly negatively affects agricultural productivity in the long run. CO2 emissions (-0.098) insignificantly hinder agricultural productivity in the long as well as in the short run. This study found unidirectional causality in the land area under cereal crops, CO2 emissions, and agricultural value added to temperature. We further found that agricultural value-added influences land area under cereal crops, temperature, rainfall, and CO2 emissions. These results highlight the critical role of climate and land use in shaping agricultural output in Pakistan. They also emphasize the benefits of reducing CO2 emissions in increasing agricultural productivity, promoting sustainable water usage, and expanding the land area under cultivation of cereal crops. This will enable the country to enhance agriculture productivity and maintain environmental sustainability as long as it focuses on practices that maximize the use of rainfall and add value to agriculture. Further, farmers, policymakers, and consumers must collaborate to drive change in the agricultural sector. Future researchers should assess the effectiveness of agricultural policies in improving agricultural productivity and environmental sustainability using new econometric techniques and data.