<p>White rhino (<i>Ceratotherium simum</i>) populations on private land in South Africa have defied the trend in rhino numbers, both globally and in South Africa as a whole, showing an increase over time. Many have argued that this is due to legal trophy hunting of white rhino. But will this trend continue in the future? A bioeconomic model for rhino is developed using data on white rhino populations in South Africa. Under the baseline of trophy hunting with poaching, populations of white rhino on private land continue to increase until around 2040–2045, and then decline to almost zero by around 2050–2055. Even the elimination of poaching does not improve this situation. Profits are higher for ecotourism compared with the trophy hunting option and stocks more sustainable. The argument that trophy hunting is required to pay for high security costs therefore is not supported by the outputs of the present model. Furthermore, the assumption that ecotourism and trophy hunting are complementary is also not supported by the present model. The main driver for the decline in white rhino under the trophy hunting scenario is the high increase in trophy price. In these open access models, price drives species abundance. This is what is known as “trading on extinction”. This has implications for other exploited species that command high prices on markets, and also other iconic species that are threatened. There appears to be sufficient incentive for game farms to switch to ecotourism. The only constraint to this actually occurring could be government’s recent policy on land expropriation without compensation.</p>