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<p>This study examines the impact of water scarcity on agro-social welfare in the Iranian saffron market. To capture interregional market interactions, a multi-objective spatial equilibrium model is developed in which the Total Water Footprint (TWF) serves as the constraint representing water availability. The framework allows for the evaluation of environmental limitations on economic outcomes and distinguishes welfare effects for saffron producers and consumers across provinces. Scenario analysis simulate gradual reductions in TWF ranging from 10% to 50%. The results indicate a non-linear decline in national social welfare, ranging from 0.95% to 23.72%, respectively. The findings show that consumers experience relatively larger welfare losses compared to producers under increasing water scarcity. The analysis also evaluates the role of water-saving technologies. Simulation results suggest that adopting technologies capable of reducing the saffron water footprint by 36% would decrease the welfare loss under a 50% water scarcity scenario from 23.72% to 4.48%. These findings provide quantitative evidence on the distributional and aggregate welfare implications of water constraints and offer policy-relevant insights for resource management in water-stressed agricultural systems.</p>

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Water Scarcity Reduces Agro-Social Welfare: Modeling the Benefits of Stakeholders in the Saffron Market in Iran

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月31日

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  • Alireza Alipour,
  • Zahra Ghodrati Shatoori

摘要

This study examines the impact of water scarcity on agro-social welfare in the Iranian saffron market. To capture interregional market interactions, a multi-objective spatial equilibrium model is developed in which the Total Water Footprint (TWF) serves as the constraint representing water availability. The framework allows for the evaluation of environmental limitations on economic outcomes and distinguishes welfare effects for saffron producers and consumers across provinces. Scenario analysis simulate gradual reductions in TWF ranging from 10% to 50%. The results indicate a non-linear decline in national social welfare, ranging from 0.95% to 23.72%, respectively. The findings show that consumers experience relatively larger welfare losses compared to producers under increasing water scarcity. The analysis also evaluates the role of water-saving technologies. Simulation results suggest that adopting technologies capable of reducing the saffron water footprint by 36% would decrease the welfare loss under a 50% water scarcity scenario from 23.72% to 4.48%. These findings provide quantitative evidence on the distributional and aggregate welfare implications of water constraints and offer policy-relevant insights for resource management in water-stressed agricultural systems.