Network Analysis Reveals China’s Interprovincial Agricultural Ammonia Transfer Through Trade
摘要
Agricultural ammonia emissions as a key precursor to PM2.5 formation, with over 90% originating from agricultural activities, yet the mechanisms underlying interprovincial agricultural trade-driven ammonia transfer in China remain systematically unexplored. This study innovatively integrates multi-regional input-output modeling with complex network analysis to construct China’s first interprovincial trade-embodied ammonia transfer network, elucidating its structural characteristics and cross-period changes between 2012 and 2017. Key findings reveal: (1) Distinct spatial heterogeneity in agricultural ammonia emissions, with major producing provinces (e.g., Henan, Shandong) transferring ammonia loads to consumption regions through dominant channels like the “North-to-South Grain Transfer”; (2) A network topology confirmed through statistical comparison with random networks, exhibiting small-world topology (small-world coefficient σ > 3.1) characterized by high clustering coefficients and efficient interprovincial connectivity, indicating both local structural resilience and rapid pollutant diffusion potential; (3) Centrality analysis identifying production-driven hubs (Henan, Shandong) and consumption-driven hubs (Beijing, Shanghai); (4) Modular decomposition uncovering four functional blocks: “Main outflow” (western resource provinces), “Bidirectional spillovers” (central hub provinces), “Main inflow” (eastern consumption provinces), and “Agent” (border trade provinces). The study provides scientific foundations for establishing regional cooperative governance mechanisms for agricultural ammonia mitigation, recommending policy instruments including ecological compensation and green supply chain optimization to reconcile environmental responsibility allocation between production and consumption regions.