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<p>Rainfall variability critically impacts Mizoram’s agriculture, water resources, and disaster management, necessitating a detailed long-term trend analysis. This study examines rainfall data from 1986 to 2023 using the Mann-Kendall test, Sen’s slope estimator, and Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) to assess spatial and temporal variations. Results indicate that 76.04% (73 out of 96 month–district observations) of Mizoram’s monthly rainfall data follows a decreasing trend, with significant declines in Aizawl, Champhai, Kolasib, and Serchhip, particularly in February, September, and October. Using the Innovative Rainfall Predictive Method (IRPM), forecasts from 2024 to 2064 suggest a possible decreasing trend in rainfall, particularly in Champhai and Serchhip. These findings underscore the urgency of adaptive water management and climate resilience strategies to safeguard livelihoods and ecological stability in the state.</p>

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Monthly Rainfall Forecasting in the Districts of Mizoram Using the Innovative Rainfall Predictive Method and Trend Analysis with Mann-Kendall and Innovative Trend Analysis

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月29日

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  • Sundararajan Muniyan,
  • Marina Lallawmzuali

摘要

Rainfall variability critically impacts Mizoram’s agriculture, water resources, and disaster management, necessitating a detailed long-term trend analysis. This study examines rainfall data from 1986 to 2023 using the Mann-Kendall test, Sen’s slope estimator, and Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) to assess spatial and temporal variations. Results indicate that 76.04% (73 out of 96 month–district observations) of Mizoram’s monthly rainfall data follows a decreasing trend, with significant declines in Aizawl, Champhai, Kolasib, and Serchhip, particularly in February, September, and October. Using the Innovative Rainfall Predictive Method (IRPM), forecasts from 2024 to 2064 suggest a possible decreasing trend in rainfall, particularly in Champhai and Serchhip. These findings underscore the urgency of adaptive water management and climate resilience strategies to safeguard livelihoods and ecological stability in the state.