<p>Extreme pollution in South Africa is a significant problem due to factors such as industrial activities, mining operations, and inadequate waste management, leading to severe air and water pollution. This pollution poses serious health risks to the population, harms ecosystems, and contributes to environmental degradation. In this paper, an extreme value analysis of daily measurements of eight pollutants is provided for 30 stations in South Africa. Extreme values were defined as monthly maximums of daily measurements of pollutants. The generalized extreme value distribution was fitted to them with two of its three parameters allowed to vary linearly, quadratically, sinusoidally, or combinations of them with respect to month number. Most of the stations for each pollutant exhibited significant trends in monthly maximums. A majority of the trends were downward, but some were upward. The adequacy of fits was assessed by the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. The fitted models were used to derive quantiles of the monthly maximum of pollutants. In stations where pollutants are forecasted to increase, preventive actions such as stricter regulations for industries and use of public transportation could be taken.</p>

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An Extreme Value Analysis of Air Pollutants in South Africa

  • Saralees Nadarajah,
  • Adamu Abubakar Umar

摘要

Extreme pollution in South Africa is a significant problem due to factors such as industrial activities, mining operations, and inadequate waste management, leading to severe air and water pollution. This pollution poses serious health risks to the population, harms ecosystems, and contributes to environmental degradation. In this paper, an extreme value analysis of daily measurements of eight pollutants is provided for 30 stations in South Africa. Extreme values were defined as monthly maximums of daily measurements of pollutants. The generalized extreme value distribution was fitted to them with two of its three parameters allowed to vary linearly, quadratically, sinusoidally, or combinations of them with respect to month number. Most of the stations for each pollutant exhibited significant trends in monthly maximums. A majority of the trends were downward, but some were upward. The adequacy of fits was assessed by the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. The fitted models were used to derive quantiles of the monthly maximum of pollutants. In stations where pollutants are forecasted to increase, preventive actions such as stricter regulations for industries and use of public transportation could be taken.