Vulnerability to severe material and social deprivation across EU-27 socio-economic clusters in the polycrisis era
摘要
This study examines household susceptibility to severe material and social deprivation (SMSD) in the context of the polycrisis, focusing on five representative EU-27 countries selected through a cluster analysis of poverty, social exclusion, and income inequality indicators. Greece, Italy, Poland, Austria, and Finland were identified as representatives of distinct socio-economic clusters. Using 2024 EU-SILC microdata, logistic regression models with predictive accuracies between 75 and 90% were estimated to assess the impact of key socio-demographic and socio-economic determinants on SMSD probability. Across all analysed countries, the strongest determinants of SMSD were economic activity status, self-perceived health, educational attainment, and household type, as well as marital status and region, except in Finland. Households headed by unemployed, low-educated, or individuals in poor health, together with single-parent and large families, exhibited the greatest vulnerability. Although SMSD prevalence differed across countries, the profile of the most vulnerable household groups remained largely consistent across them. Regional disparities were substantial in Italy and Greece, while in Finland they were statistically insignificant. Greece displayed significantly higher SMSD probabilities across all examined determinants compared with the other analysed countries. Even the least vulnerable household groups in Greece displayed SMSD probabilities comparable to or higher than those observed for the most vulnerable groups in Austria, Finland, Italy, and Poland. The labour market and social protection system in Greece remain weaker than those in the other four countries. Evidence also suggests shortcomings in the Polish social protection system, although these are masked by relatively low aggregate SMSD rates.