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<p>This paper examines the role of finance and asset prices in enhancing the real-time reliability of output gap estimates. In a structural unobserved components model, financial indicators are embedded in the cyclical component alongside unemployment and inflation. The results show that incorporating finance and asset prices not only explains a large share of cyclical fluctuations in economic output but also improves real-time reliability by producing estimates that are less prone to ex-post revisions.</p>

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Finance, asset prices, and the business cycle: evidence on the reliability of real-time output gap estimates

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月27日

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  • Dominik Schmied

摘要

This paper examines the role of finance and asset prices in enhancing the real-time reliability of output gap estimates. In a structural unobserved components model, financial indicators are embedded in the cyclical component alongside unemployment and inflation. The results show that incorporating finance and asset prices not only explains a large share of cyclical fluctuations in economic output but also improves real-time reliability by producing estimates that are less prone to ex-post revisions.