<p>Native forests in Ecuador are major reservoirs of biodiversity, but they remain under persistent pressure from human activities. This study examined the spatiotemporal dynamics and factors associated with native forest loss across continental Ecuador from 1990 to 2022. We integrated Landsat imagery, the Soil-Adjusted Vegetation Index (SAVI), and biophysical variables within a Geographic Information System and applied binary logistic regression models. The relative statistical contribution of 13 predictors was evaluated using the Wald statistic. Road accessibility remained the strongest predictor of native forest loss throughout the 32-year period, although its Wald value decreased from 15,311.5 in 1990 to 13,571.7 in 2022. The statistical contribution of slope increased from 1701.2 to 2148.8, indicating that forest-loss pressure extended toward more topographically complex terrain. Clay content remained positively associated with forest loss in both periods, with its odds ratio showing only a slight change from 1.206 in 1990 to 1.200 in 2022, while rainfall became one of the most influential predictors in 2022 (Wald = 1182.1). In contrast, the statistical contribution of SAVI decreased over time, indicating that recent forest loss was more strongly associated with topographic and edaphic conditions than with spectral variation in vegetation condition. These patterns indicate increasing forest-loss susceptibility in steep and environmentally sensitive areas. They also highlight the potential implications of native forest removal for slope stability and territorial risk management. The proposed geospatial framework can support conservation planning and the identification of areas with elevated susceptibility to native forest conversion.</p> Graphical abstract <p></p>

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Spillover patterns in native forest loss in continental Ecuador: a 32-year analysis of spatial susceptibility

  • Karime Montes-Escobar,
  • Michael Macías Pro,
  • Jorge Luis Velez-Zambrano,
  • Wilson Jesús Saltos-Alcívar,
  • Carlos Alfredo Salas-Macías

摘要

Native forests in Ecuador are major reservoirs of biodiversity, but they remain under persistent pressure from human activities. This study examined the spatiotemporal dynamics and factors associated with native forest loss across continental Ecuador from 1990 to 2022. We integrated Landsat imagery, the Soil-Adjusted Vegetation Index (SAVI), and biophysical variables within a Geographic Information System and applied binary logistic regression models. The relative statistical contribution of 13 predictors was evaluated using the Wald statistic. Road accessibility remained the strongest predictor of native forest loss throughout the 32-year period, although its Wald value decreased from 15,311.5 in 1990 to 13,571.7 in 2022. The statistical contribution of slope increased from 1701.2 to 2148.8, indicating that forest-loss pressure extended toward more topographically complex terrain. Clay content remained positively associated with forest loss in both periods, with its odds ratio showing only a slight change from 1.206 in 1990 to 1.200 in 2022, while rainfall became one of the most influential predictors in 2022 (Wald = 1182.1). In contrast, the statistical contribution of SAVI decreased over time, indicating that recent forest loss was more strongly associated with topographic and edaphic conditions than with spectral variation in vegetation condition. These patterns indicate increasing forest-loss susceptibility in steep and environmentally sensitive areas. They also highlight the potential implications of native forest removal for slope stability and territorial risk management. The proposed geospatial framework can support conservation planning and the identification of areas with elevated susceptibility to native forest conversion.

Graphical abstract