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<p>This study modeled and mapped the potential distribution of alpha plant diversity in the Bozdağlar Region (Aegean, Türkiye) under current and future climate scenarios. Vegetation data were collected from 170 plots (20 × 20&#xa0;m), yielding 530 taxa belonging to 64 families and 272 genera, including 24 endemic taxa. Species diversity was quantified using Shannon–Wiener and Simpson indices and species richness metrics. Random Forest modeling was applied to identify the main environmental drivers and predict spatial patterns of diversity. Among the tested diversity metrics, the Shannon-based model showed the highest explanatory power (<i>R</i><sup>2</sup> = 0.301), but still accounted for only a limited proportion of the observed variation. Across all models, slope, annual mean temperature (BIO1), temperature annual range (BIO7), and relative noon solar illumination index (RELNOON) were identified as the most influential predictors. Under current climate conditions, diversity was relatively higher at lower elevations (&lt; 500&#xa0;m) and higher elevations (&gt; 1300&#xa0;m), whereas comparatively lower diversity values were observed across the mid-elevation belt (500–1300&#xa0;m). Model-based projections for 2081–2100 suggested potential spatial shifts in diversity patterns across climate scenarios. Under SSP1-2.6 (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways), areas of relatively high diversity were projected to occur mainly in the northeastern, eastern, and southern parts of the region, whereas broader areas were predicted to exhibit higher diversity values under SSP2-4.5 and SSP3-7.0. Even under the high-emission SSP5-8.5 scenario, some projections indicated a potential expansion of high-diversity areas. However, these patterns should be interpreted cautiously because they are based on model projections and associated uncertainties. The results may suggest that the pronounced topographic heterogeneity of the Bozdağlar region could contribute to moderating some climate change impacts on plant diversity. These findings indicate possible spatial restructuring of plant diversity and provide a preliminary scientific basis for ecosystem-based forest management and climate adaptation planning.</p>

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Modeling and mapping current and future climate-driven patterns of plant species diversity in the Bozdağlar Region, Aegean Türkiye

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月30日

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  • Ayşegül Tekeş Düdükçü,
  • Kürşad Özkan

摘要

This study modeled and mapped the potential distribution of alpha plant diversity in the Bozdağlar Region (Aegean, Türkiye) under current and future climate scenarios. Vegetation data were collected from 170 plots (20 × 20 m), yielding 530 taxa belonging to 64 families and 272 genera, including 24 endemic taxa. Species diversity was quantified using Shannon–Wiener and Simpson indices and species richness metrics. Random Forest modeling was applied to identify the main environmental drivers and predict spatial patterns of diversity. Among the tested diversity metrics, the Shannon-based model showed the highest explanatory power (R2 = 0.301), but still accounted for only a limited proportion of the observed variation. Across all models, slope, annual mean temperature (BIO1), temperature annual range (BIO7), and relative noon solar illumination index (RELNOON) were identified as the most influential predictors. Under current climate conditions, diversity was relatively higher at lower elevations (< 500 m) and higher elevations (> 1300 m), whereas comparatively lower diversity values were observed across the mid-elevation belt (500–1300 m). Model-based projections for 2081–2100 suggested potential spatial shifts in diversity patterns across climate scenarios. Under SSP1-2.6 (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways), areas of relatively high diversity were projected to occur mainly in the northeastern, eastern, and southern parts of the region, whereas broader areas were predicted to exhibit higher diversity values under SSP2-4.5 and SSP3-7.0. Even under the high-emission SSP5-8.5 scenario, some projections indicated a potential expansion of high-diversity areas. However, these patterns should be interpreted cautiously because they are based on model projections and associated uncertainties. The results may suggest that the pronounced topographic heterogeneity of the Bozdağlar region could contribute to moderating some climate change impacts on plant diversity. These findings indicate possible spatial restructuring of plant diversity and provide a preliminary scientific basis for ecosystem-based forest management and climate adaptation planning.