Scholarlink

<p>Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) represent one of the most severe climate-induced hazards in high-mountain regions. The Shisper Glacier in Hassanabad Village, Hunza, Pakistan, has experienced repeated surge events and rapid ice-dammed lake expansion, posing escalating risks to downstream communities and critical infrastructure. This study presents a multi-temporal, multi-index remote sensing and GIS-based assessment of Shisper Glacier dynamics and associated GLOF hazards for the period 2020–2024. Landsat-8 OLI imagery was used to compute the normalized difference snow index (NDSI), normalized difference water index (NDWI), modified normalized difference water index (MNDWI), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), land surface temperature (LST), land use and land cover (LULC), and green-red-NIR-shortwave infrared (GRZI) composite indices. Elevation change analysis was performed using the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) digital elevation model (DEM), while NASA POWER data provided climatological context for temperature, precipitation, and humidity patterns. The ice-dammed lake area at the glacier’s snout was delineated using MNDWI-based water body extraction from Landsat-8 OLI imagery, and lake volume was estimated using a depth-area empirical scaling relationship, consistent with established methodologies for ice-dammed lakes in the Karakoram. Results indicate that the debris-covered glacier expanded from 161 km<sup>2</sup> in 2015 to 197 km<sup>2</sup> in 2018, while the ice-dammed lake exceeded 0.1 km<sup>2</sup> with an estimated volume between 1 × 10<sup>6</sup> m<sup>3</sup> and 10 × 10<sup>6</sup> m<sup>3</sup>, representing a substantial and growing GLOF hazard. Rising land surface temperatures and changing precipitation patterns are identified as key drivers of accelerated glacial melt. Approximately 80% of Hassanabad Village’s infrastructure, including the Karakoram Highway Bridge and a nearby hydropower facility, lies within the projected GLOF inundation zone. The novelty of this study lies in the first integrated application of seven spectral indices combined with DEM-based surge mapping and infrastructure exposure assessment for Shisper Glacier within a unified hazard framework. These findings underscore the urgent need for continuous satellite-based monitoring, early warning systems, and risk-informed land-use planning in the Hunza region.</p>

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

Multi-index remote sensing and GIS-based assessment of Shisper Glacier surge dynamics and glacial lake outburst flood hazard in Hunza, Pakistan

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月16日

查看全文
  • Maida Khanum,
  • Yuping Su,
  • Shakeel Mahmood,
  • Kanwal Javid,
  • Jehangir Ijaz,
  • Sheraz Akhtar Gil,
  • Muhammad Irfan Ahamad,
  • Rana Muhammad Zulqarnain

摘要

Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) represent one of the most severe climate-induced hazards in high-mountain regions. The Shisper Glacier in Hassanabad Village, Hunza, Pakistan, has experienced repeated surge events and rapid ice-dammed lake expansion, posing escalating risks to downstream communities and critical infrastructure. This study presents a multi-temporal, multi-index remote sensing and GIS-based assessment of Shisper Glacier dynamics and associated GLOF hazards for the period 2020–2024. Landsat-8 OLI imagery was used to compute the normalized difference snow index (NDSI), normalized difference water index (NDWI), modified normalized difference water index (MNDWI), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), land surface temperature (LST), land use and land cover (LULC), and green-red-NIR-shortwave infrared (GRZI) composite indices. Elevation change analysis was performed using the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) digital elevation model (DEM), while NASA POWER data provided climatological context for temperature, precipitation, and humidity patterns. The ice-dammed lake area at the glacier’s snout was delineated using MNDWI-based water body extraction from Landsat-8 OLI imagery, and lake volume was estimated using a depth-area empirical scaling relationship, consistent with established methodologies for ice-dammed lakes in the Karakoram. Results indicate that the debris-covered glacier expanded from 161 km2 in 2015 to 197 km2 in 2018, while the ice-dammed lake exceeded 0.1 km2 with an estimated volume between 1 × 106 m3 and 10 × 106 m3, representing a substantial and growing GLOF hazard. Rising land surface temperatures and changing precipitation patterns are identified as key drivers of accelerated glacial melt. Approximately 80% of Hassanabad Village’s infrastructure, including the Karakoram Highway Bridge and a nearby hydropower facility, lies within the projected GLOF inundation zone. The novelty of this study lies in the first integrated application of seven spectral indices combined with DEM-based surge mapping and infrastructure exposure assessment for Shisper Glacier within a unified hazard framework. These findings underscore the urgent need for continuous satellite-based monitoring, early warning systems, and risk-informed land-use planning in the Hunza region.