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<p>The Eastern Himalayan region (EHR) has biodiverse ecosystems contributing to various ecosystem services for the indigenous populations where climate change has impacted the ecosystems. The present study aims to evaluate the climatic safety margins of the four major forest types of Nagaland, an EHR state. The difference between long-term temperature and precipitation values and the median of their respective percentile was considered as safety margin. The 98th percentile of maximum temperature and the 2nd percentile of precipitation for the selected period were calculated on Google Earth Engine and Rstudio. Future climate change scenario (SSP 5–8.5) was applied to evaluate the future safety margins of the forest types. Mixed moist deciduous, pine, wet hill, and wet temperate forests have temperature safety margins ranging from 4.5–11.7℃, 4.5–13.0℃, 4.5–12.2℃, and 4.5–12.6℃, respectively; and for precipitation, from 144.22–2643.61&#xa0;mm, 151.63–2643.61&#xa0;mm, 5.40–2665.90&#xa0;mm, 16.92–2619.82&#xa0;mm, respectively. The highest percentage of forest area for all four forest types was noted in 6.7–8.7℃ temperature safety margin and 1335–2000&#xa0;mm for precipitation safety margin. The minor variability of estimated safety margins likely reflect the physiological adaptation strategies adopted by the respective forests. The forest types did not exceed their temperature safety margins under SSP 5–8.5, whereas pine, wet hill, and wet temperate forests exhibit areas that surpass their precipitation safety margins. The study establishes a critical baseline for understanding future climatic limits and provides valuable insights in formulating effective strategies for forest adaptation and resilience in EHR.</p>

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Estimation of climatic safety margins of forests under business as usual and future climate scenario in Eastern Himalayan regions

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月26日

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  • Lungyina B. Meru,
  • Sanjo Jose V,
  • Juha M. Alatalo,
  • Rajiv Pandey

摘要

The Eastern Himalayan region (EHR) has biodiverse ecosystems contributing to various ecosystem services for the indigenous populations where climate change has impacted the ecosystems. The present study aims to evaluate the climatic safety margins of the four major forest types of Nagaland, an EHR state. The difference between long-term temperature and precipitation values and the median of their respective percentile was considered as safety margin. The 98th percentile of maximum temperature and the 2nd percentile of precipitation for the selected period were calculated on Google Earth Engine and Rstudio. Future climate change scenario (SSP 5–8.5) was applied to evaluate the future safety margins of the forest types. Mixed moist deciduous, pine, wet hill, and wet temperate forests have temperature safety margins ranging from 4.5–11.7℃, 4.5–13.0℃, 4.5–12.2℃, and 4.5–12.6℃, respectively; and for precipitation, from 144.22–2643.61 mm, 151.63–2643.61 mm, 5.40–2665.90 mm, 16.92–2619.82 mm, respectively. The highest percentage of forest area for all four forest types was noted in 6.7–8.7℃ temperature safety margin and 1335–2000 mm for precipitation safety margin. The minor variability of estimated safety margins likely reflect the physiological adaptation strategies adopted by the respective forests. The forest types did not exceed their temperature safety margins under SSP 5–8.5, whereas pine, wet hill, and wet temperate forests exhibit areas that surpass their precipitation safety margins. The study establishes a critical baseline for understanding future climatic limits and provides valuable insights in formulating effective strategies for forest adaptation and resilience in EHR.