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<p>Intensive anthropogenic activities in high-groundwater coal basins (HGCBs) have dramatically altered land use/land cover (LULC) patterns, exerting profound impacts on regional ecosystem carbon storage. In this study, conducted in the Yanzhou Coalfield, China, we developed a refined water body classification scheme that divides water bodies into natural, artificial, seasonal, and perennial types to better capture the ecological heterogeneity of water bodies within mining-induced subsidence areas, which is often overlooked in conventional assessments. By coupling the PLUS and InVEST models, we quantified carbon storage dynamics driven by LULC changes from 2005 to 2020 and projected carbon storage levels for 2035 under four scenarios: historical trend (HT), food security (FS), ecological restoration (ER), and coordinated development (CD). The primary findings of this study are as follows: (1) Significant differences in carbon density existed among water body types, in the order natural water bodies &gt; seasonal water bodies &gt; perennial water bodies &gt; artificial water bodies. Neglecting these differences can introduce systematic biases in carbon storage assessment. (2) Cropland area decreased substantially from 2005 to 2020, while built-up land and water bodies expanded continuously. (3) Intensive LULC transitions resulted in a 12.77% decline in total carbon storage (equivalent to 2.38 × 10<sup>5</sup>&#xa0;Mg), primarily driven by the conversion of high-carbon-density cropland to built-up land and subsidence water bodies due to coal mining activities. (4) Projections for 2035 indicate that total carbon storage would decline by an additional 11.67% under the HT scenario. In contrast, the FS, ER, and CD scenarios effectively mitigated losses, with declines of 6.15%, 5.05%, and 3.13%, respectively. The CD scenario achieved the best performance through synergistic optimization of carbon sequestration, food security, and ecological restoration objectives. These findings provide critical insights for integrating carbon sequestration objectives into land management practices in coal mining areas, thereby supporting land use optimization and climate change mitigation efforts.</p>

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Assessment and simulation of carbon storage in high-groundwater coal basins based on detailed water body classification: a case study of the Yanzhou Coalfield, China

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月19日

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  • Yanan He,
  • Yanhua Fu,
  • Li Wang,
  • Wenqi Chen,
  • Wu Xiao,
  • Yichen Shi,
  • Zhengshan Ju

摘要

Intensive anthropogenic activities in high-groundwater coal basins (HGCBs) have dramatically altered land use/land cover (LULC) patterns, exerting profound impacts on regional ecosystem carbon storage. In this study, conducted in the Yanzhou Coalfield, China, we developed a refined water body classification scheme that divides water bodies into natural, artificial, seasonal, and perennial types to better capture the ecological heterogeneity of water bodies within mining-induced subsidence areas, which is often overlooked in conventional assessments. By coupling the PLUS and InVEST models, we quantified carbon storage dynamics driven by LULC changes from 2005 to 2020 and projected carbon storage levels for 2035 under four scenarios: historical trend (HT), food security (FS), ecological restoration (ER), and coordinated development (CD). The primary findings of this study are as follows: (1) Significant differences in carbon density existed among water body types, in the order natural water bodies > seasonal water bodies > perennial water bodies > artificial water bodies. Neglecting these differences can introduce systematic biases in carbon storage assessment. (2) Cropland area decreased substantially from 2005 to 2020, while built-up land and water bodies expanded continuously. (3) Intensive LULC transitions resulted in a 12.77% decline in total carbon storage (equivalent to 2.38 × 105 Mg), primarily driven by the conversion of high-carbon-density cropland to built-up land and subsidence water bodies due to coal mining activities. (4) Projections for 2035 indicate that total carbon storage would decline by an additional 11.67% under the HT scenario. In contrast, the FS, ER, and CD scenarios effectively mitigated losses, with declines of 6.15%, 5.05%, and 3.13%, respectively. The CD scenario achieved the best performance through synergistic optimization of carbon sequestration, food security, and ecological restoration objectives. These findings provide critical insights for integrating carbon sequestration objectives into land management practices in coal mining areas, thereby supporting land use optimization and climate change mitigation efforts.