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<p>Understanding long-term microbial dynamics in semi-enclosed coastal systems is essential for evaluating wastewater-related impacts and informing management responses. This study applies an integrated nonparametric diagnostic framework to characterize seven years (2010–2016) of total coliform (TC) variability at two shoreline stations in Kuwait. Annual mean TC concentrations were analyzed using Mann–Kendall trend tests, Sen’s slope estimation, Pettitt change-point detection, percentile-based anomaly classification, and first-order decay modeling. Station S07 exhibited exceptionally high TC levels during 2010–2011, followed by a statistically significant change point and lower annual concentrations from 2012 onward. Trend diagnostics confirmed a significant downward trajectory, and decay modeling indicated rapid attenuation (<i>λ</i> = 0.327&#xa0;year⁻1; half-life = 2.12&#xa0;years). In contrast, station S09 remained consistently lower in magnitude, showed no clear structural shift, and displayed a slower but measurable long-term decline (<i>λ</i> = 0.188&#xa0;year⁻1; half-life = 3.69&#xa0;years). The analyses indicate contrasting annual contamination patterns between the two stations, with S07 reflecting a more dynamic, contamination-prone setting and S09 a comparatively stable, lower-intensity setting. Interpreted within the limits of annual summary data and restricted environmental covariate information, these findings provide a cautious basis for evaluating broad microbial contrasts in data-limited coastal systems and can guide future studies using higher-resolution observations.</p>

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Integrated nonparametric diagnostics and decay modeling reveal contrasting microbial contamination patterns in a semi-enclosed coastal system

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月15日

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  • Ohoud Bushaibah

摘要

Understanding long-term microbial dynamics in semi-enclosed coastal systems is essential for evaluating wastewater-related impacts and informing management responses. This study applies an integrated nonparametric diagnostic framework to characterize seven years (2010–2016) of total coliform (TC) variability at two shoreline stations in Kuwait. Annual mean TC concentrations were analyzed using Mann–Kendall trend tests, Sen’s slope estimation, Pettitt change-point detection, percentile-based anomaly classification, and first-order decay modeling. Station S07 exhibited exceptionally high TC levels during 2010–2011, followed by a statistically significant change point and lower annual concentrations from 2012 onward. Trend diagnostics confirmed a significant downward trajectory, and decay modeling indicated rapid attenuation (λ = 0.327 year⁻1; half-life = 2.12 years). In contrast, station S09 remained consistently lower in magnitude, showed no clear structural shift, and displayed a slower but measurable long-term decline (λ = 0.188 year⁻1; half-life = 3.69 years). The analyses indicate contrasting annual contamination patterns between the two stations, with S07 reflecting a more dynamic, contamination-prone setting and S09 a comparatively stable, lower-intensity setting. Interpreted within the limits of annual summary data and restricted environmental covariate information, these findings provide a cautious basis for evaluating broad microbial contrasts in data-limited coastal systems and can guide future studies using higher-resolution observations.