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<p>Extreme rainfall reshapes the underwater light field and nutrient regime, complicating the predictability of algal risk. We sampled 20 subtropical drinking-water reservoirs in Guangdong, China, in June and September 2024 and used a data-driven search to identify month-specific antecedent rainfall windows. The optimal antecedent windows showed strong seasonality, spanning 30 d in June but only 6 d in September, with contrasting cumulative rainfall thresholds (<i>k</i> = 26 d in June and <i>k</i> = 48 d in September). Then, we used piecewise SEM to disentangle the pathways of light attenuation coefficient (Kd) and nutrients (DIN, TP) influencing size-fractionated chlorophyll-a. Under the late-season window, rainfall consistently elevates turbidity and redistributes nutrients, yielding robust increases in pico/nano chlorophyll while effects on &gt; 20&#xa0;μm remain weak—together providing an actionable 7–8-week lead time. Building on these patterns, we outline a joint monitoring bundle—windowed rainfall, Kd, and TN/TP—and convert windows into practical rules for sampling frequency and station placement in storm-prone reservoirs. The framework reduces window-selection bias and is readily transferable to operational early warning.</p>

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Operational monitoring windows from cumulative rainfall to chlorophyll-a in subtropical reservoirs

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月9日

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  • Jingxin Wei,
  • Peiliang Chen,
  • Xingcheng Fu,
  • Jie Ling,
  • Bingqing Xiao,
  • Xuedong Xie,
  • Bozhu Huang,
  • Jingyi Cen,
  • Songhui Lu

摘要

Extreme rainfall reshapes the underwater light field and nutrient regime, complicating the predictability of algal risk. We sampled 20 subtropical drinking-water reservoirs in Guangdong, China, in June and September 2024 and used a data-driven search to identify month-specific antecedent rainfall windows. The optimal antecedent windows showed strong seasonality, spanning 30 d in June but only 6 d in September, with contrasting cumulative rainfall thresholds (k = 26 d in June and k = 48 d in September). Then, we used piecewise SEM to disentangle the pathways of light attenuation coefficient (Kd) and nutrients (DIN, TP) influencing size-fractionated chlorophyll-a. Under the late-season window, rainfall consistently elevates turbidity and redistributes nutrients, yielding robust increases in pico/nano chlorophyll while effects on > 20 μm remain weak—together providing an actionable 7–8-week lead time. Building on these patterns, we outline a joint monitoring bundle—windowed rainfall, Kd, and TN/TP—and convert windows into practical rules for sampling frequency and station placement in storm-prone reservoirs. The framework reduces window-selection bias and is readily transferable to operational early warning.